Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

[Webberweather53]

The CAMS are what I feared in terms of models not picking up just how dry and cold the surface really is with the DPs being spit out. Just seemed like the temps were not corresponding and falling even with those low DPs like they should on these model runs. Even the NAM and RGEM look like they're not falling enough with the wet bulb. Do I think it will be as south as the CAMS are showing? No but areas along and north of 85 definitely should keep a close eye.

There’s often-almost always some modest dew point depressions in CAD, unless the precip is heavy. A continuous feed of cool dry air from the NE helps keep the dews slightly lower than actual temps even as sfc temps fall towards it. It’s hard for the temps to actually fall exactly to the wet bulb for this reason

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

This is why the cmc may not be very accurate. Lows tomorrow morning. I do not think it will be this cold.

 

[Spurs up]

how much snow will Columbia sc get

lol stop

 

[smast16]

Well for example, with that system in December. It was spitting out huge ice totals like it is right now. And most areas just got a cold rain.

Because those freezing rain maps are about as bad as COD GEFS snow maps. They see 1.25" of rain fell in 31 or 32 degree temps, and it's going to spit out Freezing Rain accruals of 1.25". Thats not how ZR works. We know water doesn't freeze instantly at 31 degrees so a lot runs off like a normal rain.

Use Fram.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I’ve seen it time and time again .. this CAD seems noticeably colder than the past “ice events” we’ve had as of recent which really just give the triad a wet .1-.25 of ice ??‍ This one has cold temps on top of dry air ... even the stale events over preform ITS HARD TO move that cold air out ... models always preform poorly ... especially globals

 

[FallsLake]

Looks like the Canadian is coming in a little colder. Looks similar to the short range version RDPS.

 

[FallsLake]

Lol...Jack pots Person County with ~3.25".

 

[iGRXY]

Pretty big ice storm from NE GA/Upstate SC/ and into the Piedmont.

 

[WxGSO]

This is why the cmc may not be very accurate. Lows tomorrow morning. I do not think it will be this cold.View attachment 69036

Are you basing this on a guess or do you have something to back it up. Same goes with "this model has a warm bias, or this model has a cold bias." Please show me where you find that info, I'm curious.
Now, I don't believe it will get that cold tomorrow morning, either, based on the fact the other models don't agree on lows quite that cold.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Are you basing this on a guess or do you have something to back it up. Same goes with "this model has a warm bias, or this model has a cold bias." Please show me where you find that info, I'm curious.
Now, I don't believe it will get that cold tomorrow morning, either, based on the fact the other models don't agree on lows quite that cold.

I said that because this model had me getting down to 15 this morning. I got down to 22. It's an extremely cold biased model.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Lets hope the RDPS does not win this model war. It has me at 1.25" of freezing rain; but that's not the worse location. Looks like northern Orange / southern Person counties would "jack pot" (in a bad way) at ~2.25". Terrible outcome for something like that...

Believe me, it won't. Terrible cold bias, and high QPF bias when it comes to sleet and ZR.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here’s just a map depicting the best favored areas for now (not a accumulation map)

 

[Stephenb888]

None of the local weather men are calling for it?

Pretty big ice storm from NE GA/Upstate SC/ and into the Piedmont.

 

[BelmontWX79]

I said that because this model had me getting down to 15 this morning. I got down to 22. It's an extremely cold biased model.

Last night was clear with decreasing winds making way for ideal radiational cooling which the CMC struggles with being too cold. With CAD its cold bias is not near as bad.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[LukeBarrette]

Weak precip seems to be a thing with the NAMs even at this range. Soundings look ok on the 3K until noonish here but if the NAM does not trend a little colder, I would bet on mixing earlier than that. And yes, trust the warm nose on the NAM. View attachment 69024

The thing that is good about this is almost all of the models are guaranteeing 4+ inches. The question is how much longer does it snow after those 4 inches that could sneak us into the 6-8 range??

 

[iGRXY]

None of the local weather men are calling for it?

I meant to put on the CMC but of course they aren't going to call for it. It's too many variables associated right now with this.

 

[Metwannabe]

Looks like Ukie might have been a smidge colder... I don't have precip maps but looking at the snow map (which I know isn't all snow) it sagged south just a hair.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Find it very interesting the the euro had the same area of snow as the NAM did

 

[jjwxman]

FRAM’d... Lol. More realistic outcome IMO. And I do expect this will start to go up if the models continue to trend colder as we get into Saturday afternoon.

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