• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

olhausen said:
Looks like the 9 millionth flizzard of the season on the back end with this one If it verifies. It’s honestly incredible how many dusting to half inch events I’ve had this season. Yesterday was the 9th event of at least a dusting so far this winter. Never had a winter with this many events and not get at least a 2 inch plus snow. View attachment 68819View attachment 68818
Click to expand...
Bro .. I live in Kingsport TN and ive missed so close on 3 huge setups this season.. its an absolute nightmare.. im missing this new storm by a whole 20 miles from me .
 
HRW-FV3 has a decent little band, temps are in the mid-upper 30s on it which I think is to warm, this is a good test
ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png
90F19767-BFBF-4E58-BAE8-8A8F79BAA2A3.pngA811A96E-899D-4697-9DF7-E5A25A239E49.png
 
As of 250 PM Friday: Guidance still on track showing a highly
amplified pattern over the CONUS, with a western ridge/eastern
trough configuration setting up by the end of the period. A strong
short wave moves out of the Mid-MS Valley to the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes by Sunday morning. This system strengthens as it moves into
the Central/Southern Appalachians by Monday morning. The resulting
upper low crosses VA/NC Monday. A strong short wave dives into the
trough over the area Monday night with the trough moving to the
coast during the day Tuesday. The associated low pressure system
moves east Saturday night taking on a Miller B configuration on
Sunday. The dry slot between the OH Valley and coastal low moves in
Sunday afternoon and remains over the area Sunday night. However,
copious low level moisture remains over the area through Monday as a
NW flow precip event sets up. The NW flow and moisture linger Monday
night then slowly taper off Tuesday.

The question, as always, how much cold air will be associated with
this system. The air mass ahead of this system is relatively cold
and a strong in situ CAD does set up by Sunday morning. A strong
warm nose develops with a strong H85 southerly flow, WAA, and
isentropic lift pattern. This is seen in the partial thickness and
forecast soundings. P-type looks to be typical for a Miller B type
system. Precip starts out as snow/sleet as moisture and evaporative
cooling cools profiles to the wet bulb temps. Precip changes over to
freezing rain/rain from south to north as the warm nose kicks in.
Freezing rain/rain will last longest along and near the Blue Ridge
where the cold surface air can hold on the longest. For now, it
looks like the higher combination of p-types will be over the
counties along the Blue Ridge escarpment and east along the I-40
corridor to Iredell County. In general 2 to 4 inches of a snow/sleet
mix will combine with around a tenth of an inch of ice over these
areas. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for these areas. Expect
lesser amounts of a wintry mix over the rest of the NC mountains and
NC Southern Piedmont north to Rowan and Davie Counties. Expect an
Advisory will be needed for much of this area. It is still uncertain
how much of a mix will fall over the NE GA and Upstate mountains. It
is possible an Advisory will be needed there as well. Can`t rule out
a mix at onset south of these areas, but for now, any accumulation
would be very light with precip quickly changing over to rain. Of
course, even a small chance in temps surface or aloft would change
the expected p-types and associated amounts.

Expect all rain for Sunday afternoon as the warm conveyor belt
precip comes to an end. However, the lull in precip will be short
lived, esp across the mtns, as upper low and attendant wrap-around
moisture begins to move across the area. Snow levels will be
plummeting under strong cold advection Sunday night. Northwest flow
showers will develop during this time, with snow first developing
over the higher elevations before snow levels fall to the valley
floors by daybreak Monday. Additional light snow accums will be
likely Sunday night and continue through the day Monday, mainly
above 3000` or so along the TN border. Expect at least an Advisory
will be needed for these snow showers. That said, some showers may
break containment and move out across the foothills and piedmont on
Monday. Whether conditions will be cold enough for snow to mix in is
yet to be determined.
 
NWS now mentioning in here for the first time, I think they’ll probably put out some WWAs soon for fringe areas CDFAEAF2-AF4F-4F68-8595-06EBD10F2ABA.png
 
Unlike previous runs, the HRRR is maintaining DPs in the mid teens for this area through the day.
 
Another thing I will remind myself about today is often these types of systems that transfer end up pretty dry compared to what is modeled. Will this one be like Dec 2018 or be like most of the rest of the ? transfer systems? Really, the main low west to east through the midwest isn't much like the Dec2018 system so really not a good comparison anyway.
 
Current temp at my house is 21 and a DP of 11. Whatever falls will end up being a mess for the western part of the state (NC) but Virginia looks to get a pretty hefty snow, up to a foot in the favored areas
 
Looks like I'm getting the kitchen sink back here along the escarpment 1-3 locally 5 in favored spots right along the blue ridge where low level cold pools set up hard to erode and very cool to experience. Topped off with 1-2 of sleet idk what to think honestly. If it happens that way will be great for sledding. Fingers crossed I dont get ice and can hang on to sleet I really dont like ice at all.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top