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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

I wonder if a slightly further south of track ULL will help my chances to see flurries tonight just north of Baton Rouge, near the MS border? I keep checking every HRRR run to see, and it looks like the edge of the precip tonight may send some flurries over my location as the cold core of the low passes near and just north of location.
 
Normally we could handle these winds but they are coming in that “Hugo like direction”

With that kind of insane NE flow, there's no way the surface low can do anything but slide across south Georgia before transferring to the coast. I've never seen anything like this storm modeled for this area. Truly fascinating!

I'd love to see an analog of one exist.
 
@Jimmy Hypocracy GSP: The Winter Storm will not only cause major ice accumulations across the NC/SC/GA piedmont, there will be heavy snow accumulations across the NC/SC/GA mountains and foothills with sleet/freezing rain mixing in. With more ice expected, snow totals have decreased in this latest update. #scwx #ncwx #gawx
 
My hubby turned on TWC and it said state of emergency for GA. SC, NC and I believe VA.... Interesting...I had no idea...
The usual TWC panic mode. State of Emergency allows the state to use certain resources. I wish they would change it or have a lesser adjective for certain events.
 
@Jimmy Hypocracy GSP: The Winter Storm will not only cause major ice accumulations across the NC/SC/GA piedmont, there will be heavy snow accumulations across the NC/SC/GA mountains and foothills with sleet/freezing rain mixing in. With more ice expected, snow totals have decreased in this latest update. #scwx #ncwx #gawx
I’m a little shook. This one is going to be tough to drive out of Monday’s might stay til Tuesday if needed.
 
Yo these hrrr colder trends are really impressive aloft and at the sfc
They really are and I sent you a PM about it with a question if you got a minute. The odd thing is I didn’t see GSP reference the HRRR any in their discussion and all the short range models appear to be moving towards it
 
Moderate risk of what
Gonna go off a limb here and say a exceptional dangerous High Risk will be issued in the morning for southern Winston-Salem, southern GSO, down into Asheboro zoo area could be a war zone. This “could” extend into western Raleigh metro and north-eastern Charlotte metro.
dude can you post some maps or evidence of what a high risk is or means? Or is that just your thinking?
 
Moderate risk of what

dude can you post some maps or evidence of what a high risk is or means? Or is that just your thinking?
I can’t get the WPC moderate risk to load but I believe it’s up to 0.5”. I think they consider High Risk over half inch of thick ice.
 
WPC:
-- Ice accumulation will expand from northeast Georgia through the
interior Mid-Atlantic states on Sunday. The most damaging icing is
likely across the Piedmont of the Carolinas, including Charlotte,
NC and Greensboro, NC, which will result in dangerous travel,
power outages, and tree damage.
 
29/17, ENE winds @ 2mph, overcast… haven’t gotten above freezing all day but don’t expect any sort of winter weather tomorrow here. The east side of the CAD will erode very quickly as the low moves closer and maritime air flows in.
 
A lot of people live in Winston-Salem and Greensboro but their local Mets have not been showing the ice threat much for those cities. I wish Moderate Risks and WPC in general were used more on TV versus showing the public the gfs snow map.
 
A lot of people live in Winston-Salem and Greensboro but their local Mets have not been showing the ice threat much for those cities. I wish Moderate Risks and WPC in general were used more on TV versus showing the public the gfs snow map.
You’ve made your position clear on this. You need to chill out and post much less often in this thread. We get it.
 
HRRR and The 3k NAM are definitely trending colder just as NWS gsp lowers snow totals and raises ice. Think they may have made a mistake


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Either that or there not considering those models. It is interesting though I think I’d go with at least 2-3 inches north of 85


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sn10_acc.us_se.png

That snow hole is exactly where I live NW of ATL LOL
 
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We now have (Winter related) Warnings and Advisories in every state in the South, except TX and FL. (Even LA snuck in a few counties in the NE corner.)

Good luck everyone!
Dang, every county in West Virginia is under a Winter Storm Warning. Impressive!!!
 
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