Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
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Massive trend here. Starting to creep further and further south.
I don't want to be needy, but comparisons of that 18z vs 00/12z euro at h500 is important
Looks like the surface low is already starting to transfer off the coast of ga/sc on that 90hr panel. Giddy up!
Frontend snow going deeper and deeper into GA every run.
Everything is a touch better here. Wave is a little SE, Wave and 50/50 trough are closer together, heights up and down the E Coast are a touch south
Usually you won’t ever see things trend south closer to verification but this is probably one of the very rare situations where we can trend south due to where our energy is originating and there’s so much more volatility with its evolution on how it will trend.
And even that wasn't good enough for street sledding. It started out as light zr and turned to sleet for a few hours, light, and ended up icing down a neighbors long drive. To get some good street sledding it takes a few inches of sleet, to freeze down with sticking power so the next night, or the one after, even after the 4 wheelers chew it up, you have frozen down roads. It's been so long, I think I might just have dreamed it. I know I had the two in the 70's, and two in the 80's down here, and a half assed one in the 90's...but those are are but lost to the mists of time, and old ageBut with the gom lows trying to march, I have a feeling I'll get at least close sometime soon. Of course, to get close, you have to deal with the dreaded zr, lol.
Tony,
Hopefully it will change to more of a sleet threat for you, but for now it looks like the dreaded ZR, which I know you truly dread. Regardless, hopefully you’d get some snow on the backside!
Regarding major ZR, I was posting about past devastating ones in Atlanta that had temperatures only a little under 32. The 1/1973 one first comes to mind though there have been others. I recall you posting about that one and how scary it was in Buckhead with lots of loud noise and sort of a warzone damage kind of look. Official records had it only down to 30-31 F for most of the storm. Did you realize that?
Definitely looking less Miller B’ish. I think a probable outcome would be this trend to continue for a few cycles with the system speeding up and staying further south and then get a NW trend as it rounds the corner to go up the coast. It would definitely change the outcome for many in the SE.
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Hopefully enough to at least see a few flurries in the lowcountry *fingers crossed*
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I like the idea of a Miller A/B hybrid with CAD entrenched stronger then normal (not run of the mill)...but on the flip side, with big, mixed precip events, we don't typically see a strong wave like this that is going negative tilt. So, while the cold will be strong at the sfc, the warming is going to be very strong aloft. The stronger damming argues for snow/sleet hanging on a bit longer than normal, but the strong warming aloft argues for freezing rain to kick in quicker - the NAM and HRRR will be violent with the warm nose I'm sure
18Z Euro: Some early precip with 850s dropping to under 0C ATL eastward/northeastward due to evaporational cooling may allow it to start as snow before changing to sleet and then probably mainly ZR for much of the area before turning back to snow on the backside as it looks now to me:
The violence of the warm nose cannot be understated here lol
If the CAD already looks this good, you can bet it will come in stronger once the short range models get a hold of it. If, miraculously, the system goes negative tilt just a little later, then the low probably stays off or right along the coast and it's lights out west of 95. I still do not believe the low will ride up the interstate, especially given the already anomalous (and soon to get stronger) wedge. Well see soon enough.