Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[LovingGulfLows]

View attachment 105859
Still got a southerly wind component here

Wow, I've had an East/ENE wind now for a little while...just goes to show you how just being even 25 miles east of ATL can have a difference in the wedging.

 

[iGRXY]

Get them Obs in. Would like to see if the models are underestimating the CAD at the surface already. 3K NAM most recent run DP was a little high for this time compared to my obs

 

[bigstick10]

Wow, I've had an East/ENE wind now for a little while...just goes to show you how just being even 25 miles east of ATL can have a difference in the wedging.

Not really,,,the airport is ENE at 15 currently...

 

[Zander98al]

43 degrees and overcast in northeast Birmingham right now.

 

[RollTide18]

HUN changed their mind overnight and no advisory or watch yet

Guess they’re saying the NAM and HRRR are off their rocker, could very well be, we’ll see though, it’s been very consistent.

 

[tempo47]

Feels pretty cold and windy east of ATL in walton

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

28/26, cloudy here currently.

 

[Snownut]

36° Winds are NNE at 8mph, partly cloudy Nine Times sc

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[Honeygrl]

38 and overcast in Athens, Ga.

 

[packfan98]

Does anyone have a link for the HREF model?

 

[JJr]

29/27 cloudy, just west of Hickory

 

[Oconeexman]

36° Winds are NNE at 8mph, partly cloudy Nine Times sc

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Identical to what I have here dp 31

 

[junbb1]

Get them Obs in. Would like to see if the models are underestimating the CAD at the surface already. 3K NAM most recent run DP was a little high for this time compared to my obs

33/32. Partly cloudy. WNW at 2.
North Pacolet, SC (Campobello)

 

[iGRXY]

Does anyone have a link for the HREF model?

SPC HREF Ensemble Viewer - 500 mb wind/height, ens mean

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[njbarrineau]

Travelers Rest 35/27 at the moment


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[Storm5]

Tennessee , two big storms back to back . Pretty amazing

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[Clem282340]

Liberty sc 36/29

 

[NAtlantaStudio]

we are driving from Forsyth County GA to Valdosta GA this morning and let me tell you the air is definitely cold and doesn’t feel like it’s warming up much. Feeling colder as we have been driving. It has that bite in the air.

 

[EmersonGA]

40/35 and ready for my next 33 and rain. Y’all have fun with this one.

 

[Nerman]

I'd love to get a report from anyone Dahlonega to Helen, GA to know what they're seeing. Chattanooga too.

 

[raine1212]

Clarks Hill, SC… 40, winds at 5 windchill 37, sunny, dew point 31

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

31/28 ....... high clouds starting to move in.

 

[Crowndawg007]

39 and overcast in Sandy Springs…wind is calm.

 

[Chazwin]

The observations up in northeast look good as well. High moving into a great spot, and temperatures in the big cities down in the lower teens with dewpoints near zero and below… exactly what you expect to see while a deep CAD is setting up for south into SC and southwest into GA

 

[malak05]

37 degrees Dallas GA overcast with 3 mph NE winds hope that picks up a little bit and we fail to reach our expected high of 50

 

[SnowsWonderful]

Sure enough Apps runner…. Hard to believe it’s gotten to this point.

Apps runner? I was told it wouldn't become an apps runner bc it was CAD driven. I'm confused. lol

 

[iGRXY]

Newest HRRR through mid morning. Snow hanging on longer around and north of 85. Under those heavy returns don’t be surprised if some areas showing sleet is actually snow because the sounding is literally right at the 32 degree line. Could be a mix of snow and sleet.

 

[jrips27]

Oh man. New HRRR for noon tomorrow. Now that’s a CAD signature

 

[DadOfJax]

Apps runner? I was told it wouldn't become an apps runner bc it was CAD driven. I'm confused. lol

SLP’s cut through CAD like a knife in hot butter all the time. It’s going to cut NNE on the east side of the 500mb low, no matter what.

 

[WxGSO]

Apps runner? I was told it wouldn't become an apps runner bc it was CAD driven. I'm confused. lol

Not really an apps runner...the initial low heads that way then transfers it's energy to the coastal plain of SC/NC...Miller B

 

[Bannerdude]

29.3/29 and overcast in Durham w/ a very light NE wind

 

[D-Ray]

35/31 wind northeast at 4 cloudy

 

[iGRXY]

Apps runner? I was told it wouldn't become an apps runner bc it was CAD driven. I'm confused. lol

What’s running up the apps is the ULL. CAD keeps surface lows from running up into them. CAD really has no effect on where the ULL is going to go

 

[jrips27]

HRRR not backing down from the front end thump for north Atlanta burbs. Only lasts a couple hours

 

[Parker]

We made it to lake toxaway around 12:30 last night. Not easy with a 9 month old and two women. It’s beautiful here. For some reason all my pictures post upside down!

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

The HRRR is a good model at this range I think. I can't imagine only getting 2 inches if it's right. But at this range I stick with the NWS and look at surface obs. They had me 4-8 in Dec 2018 and I got 6. Those guys know what they're doing. If they start raising totals today I'll bite. But for now the HRRR is just eye candy.

 

[Nerman]

HRRR Kuchera

 

[iGRXY]

The HRRR is a good model at this range I think. I can't imagine only getting 2 inches if it's right. But at this range I stick with the NWS and look at surface obs. They had me 4-8 in Dec 2018 and I got 6. Those guys know what they're doing. If they start raising totals today I'll bite. But for now the HRRR is just eye candy.

I think they’re overdoing the ICE around here. Other then maybe a couple hours of light freezing rain, I HIGHLY doubt we get the 0.25-0.5” they’re forecasting. All the sounding support snow to sleet to light freezing rain for a couple of hours to snow again.

 

[NCWeatherhound]

34/31 here on top of the old city dump in Harnett Co.

 

[GaSnowhound]

Yeah. And some of those models showing sustained at 20-25 mph with higher gust as we approach go-time is something else.

My high is forecasted to reach 50 today. I doubt it, seriously.

I am still holding onto Hope that the ULL won’t cut the wedge and stays on a more E course across Ga….someone was asking about analogs. Does Gawx (Larry) or any of our other local historians have any data on that scenario???