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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

NAM and ICON at 18Z had that jump to the low more south near the panhandle, just need to see that translate out east from there...could be the beginning of a correction.....I hope.
One other thing to root for that would make things favorable is for this pup to speed up, get here quicker by 6-12 hours. would make huge difference and stay suppresed off to the east more
 
I know we don't see jogs south usually on models and usually see NW trends but this isn't you're regular storm system. We usually don't get Alberta clippers as the makers of our winter weather so the progression of them are a little different than a traditional southern wave. We can trend this further south by doing what the NAM and some other guidance is hinting at and that's keeping our energy sheared out enough until it comes into the southeast. Then we want it to close off and dig south closer to Mississippi and Alabama before making its eventual turn to the east and NE. That will push it further south and keep the warm nose further south. There's still time to see this take shape.
 
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I know we don't see jogs south usually on models and usually see NW trends but this isn't you're regular storm system. We usually don't get Alberta clippers as the makers of our winter weather so the progression of them are a little different than a traditional southern wave. We can trend this further south by doing what the NAM and some other guidance is hinting at and that's keeping our energy sheared out enough until it comes into the southeast. Then we want it to close off and dig south closer to Mississippi and Alabama before making its eventual turn to the east and NE. That will push it further south and keep the warm nose further south. There's still time to see this take shape.
Honestly, I suspect the NW trend we all talk about is more of a myth than reality. Confirmation bias can be a hell of a thing. Unless there is some modeling bias that causes it to happen and hasn’t been fixed for decades, I don’t see how it would truly be the case. But what do I know.
 
Hard to get Miller B to pan out for the foothills usually, things just have to be right
? agreed. There is a reason why we don’t have many 19 degree winter storms to reference in Wilkes/Surry. We have the CAD but will moisture hit the ground and verify on the projected amounts?
 
Wouldn't this still be considered a hybrid Miller a/b i always thought a Miller b was a low that tracked up into N Tennessee S Kentucky that transfered off too the coast. Now those setups always dry slots the nw piedmont/foothills with the transfer but this setup is diffrent.
 
This shows you just how deep this CAD is. The NAM is 10-15 degrees colder with the DP than the EURO and nearly 20 degrees colder than the GFS at the same time. The globals are just not capable of picking up of just how deep this cold air will probably be. That absolutely plays a role in what type of precip we get and just how far north the low can go.
 
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