Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Zander98al]

Hour 69 NAM LP is in NortherN LA. Was in NE Texas previous run.

Bit more to the south it looks like.

 

[FallsLake]

NAM is more sheared still through 66. And our 50/50 has really slowed down and gained strength. It warms 850's in the short term but as the low continues north it works in tandem to funnel in cold air all through the atmosphere further south as our storm is coming into the picture.

Has some negative dew points (-1) pushing into NE NC.

 

[BufordWX]

One more frame in the Nam would likely have had snow breaking out in North Georgia.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[weatherfide]

Depoint of 14 in Columbia early Sunday morning on the NAM with precip incoming. Also, the sounding on Pivotal has me starting off briefly as snow, possibly, early Sunday. Most likely sleet then quickly changing to rain.

 

[John1122]

The NAM has been super amped all year, as always, until around the 36 hour mark for the events in Tennessee this year. Inside that, the 3k has led and it catches on.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

One more frame in the Nam would likely have had snow breaking out in North Georgia.View attachment 104565View attachment 104566View attachment 104567View attachment 104569

Not often you see 29/3 proceeding a winter storm here

 

[iGRXY]

The NAM is a little faster than the EURO but they look more similar in my opinion based on the surface.

 

[Broken024]

Nam looks better than gfs. Way further south.

 

[packfan98]

My takeaways comparing the 18z to the 12z Nam
-Stronger High Pressure and in a more favorable spot slightly further west.
-Stronger Confluence that helped keep the HP a bit west
-Shortwave was slightly weaker. Many frames it stayed open where it was closed off at 12z
-Weaker surface low
-Surface low was a touch faster than 12z. This seemed to be because the Shortwave wasn't digging quite as much earlier in the run.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

One more frame in the Nam would likely have had snow breaking out in North Georgia.View attachment 104565View attachment 104566View attachment 104567View attachment 104569

That now also makes the LR NAM close here for frontend snow.

 

[accu35]

Nam pushing that low south towards Mobile in the last frame

 

[iGRXY]

At H5 the NAM was definitely doing what we wanted. It stayed sheared out enough coming down the plains and started consolidating and closing off in Arkansas. Likely would have kept diving further south before moving NE.

 

[Metwannabe]

My takeaways comparing the 18z to the 12z Nam
-Stronger High Pressure and in a more favorable spot slightly further west.
-Stronger Confluence that helped keep the HP a bit west
-Shortwave was slightly weaker. Many frames it stayed open where it was closed off at 12z
-Weaker surface low
-Surface low was a touch faster than 12z. This seemed to be because the Shortwave wasn't digging quite as much earlier in the run.

Good stuff and as you mentioned it is keeping the the wave open a little longer each run. NAM is decent inside of 60 hrs, curious to see if it continues to stay open further east with each successive run now

 

[Nerman]

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the north and east Atlanta suburbs get in on that front end snow band for a few hours Sunday morning before changing over to freezing rain. I would even say that we may end up below freezing all day Sunday based off some of the models. Kinda feels like Feb. 2014.

Where it stands now I'd suggest snow, sleet, freezing rain, sleet, snow for our area. Really hoping the freezing rain portion is kept to a minimum.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Modeling the CAD is always the trick. Moisture is NOT going to be a problem with this storm. It's going to be a very bad ice storm for many. Hopefully, most of the ice will be sleet and not fzrn. Whomever gets the fzrn it's going to be lights out, literally. Also, the winds are going to be high, esp once the storm rides up the coast.

Yea with Dewpoints so low and even actual temps…locals here and esp Ashe County NC will tell you funky things can happen during transfers with qpf. @BIG FROSTY knows this well too. Already GFS vs Euro disagree on amounts and with plenty of days if the euro were to cut in half then we are talking a low grade winter storm. Of course, always prepare for the worse but saying absolutes in all caps after many storms we know what could happen.

 

[Downeastnc]

Nam looks better than gfs. Way further south.
View attachment 104574View attachment 104575

NAM and ICON at 18Z had that jump to the low more south near the panhandle, just need to see that translate out east from there...could be the beginning of a correction.....I hope.

 

[NCSNOW]

Not often you see 29/3 proceeding a winter storm here

This is ahead of schedule: But it happens to many times to count, almost always. as we get closer to start time for precip, it seems to always arrive earlier than forecasted by models. Reading the Metwannabe and SD talk of frontogensis early thump etc. This would help get some folks a couple hours of the good stuff, before the waa comes along to wreck the soundings upstairs.

 

[Chazwin]

28/4 for me at the end of that NAM run. I’ve always felt for to see a strong CAD to lock things under freezing here, I want to have my temperature in the mid 30s and the single digit dewpoints right about the NC/VA state line…this far and away exceeds that. This really does have the potential to be one of the stronger CAD set ups we’ve seen in a long time

 

[iGRXY]

LR Nam but I still trust the NAM's handling of the CAD and surface pressures more than OPs at this range. I don't start really looking at the actual surface with temps, etc until we get around 48 hours but even in the LR the Nam definitely knows how to show the progression of CAD better.