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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

If I were in Upstate SC, I would favor the RAP too. LMAO! That looks sweet. I'm rolling with the GFS. It covers Gilmer well. Later, I may have another favorite but it must have a lot of blue or purple on my county. That's my take anyways. ;)

Thanks Larry for the great GA analysis today. We are heavy Carolinas in here for sure so you are appreciated.
 
nashville station says they are upping totals in the south
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GaWx said:
For SAV in a week? My abacus isn’t nearly powerful enough to even try to guess. The default is nothing due to climo but to also be hopeful because that’s the type of thing that can once in a blue moon do something.

I’m not giving up on the idea that there could be sizable sleet in much of ATL, especially north burbs. 850s are warning me that. What are the moles telling you? ?
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Well, they are doing the cad dance...using the awooga wooga with whammy fingers..trying to urge the cad past the I 20 wall, lol. No, I was wondering if you would see something out of this weekends play. As for Atl, you know the conditions that give sizable sleet, so I leave that to your capable hands. I just know whammy fingers does not always work for Atl...or...be careful what you wish for...it can easily go heavy zr too :) I'm pulling for us all to get a dose of sleet with the zr and snow....for staying power. Kids, old and young, need to sled down steep Atl streets. It's soul food. And it's only possible in heavy sleet accumulations.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
If I were in Upstate SC, I would favor the RAP too. LMAO! That looks sweet. I'm rolling with the GFS. It covers Gilmer well. Later, I may have another favorite but it must have a lot of blue or purple on my county. That's my take anyways. ;)

Thanks Larry for the great GA analysis today. We are heavy Carolinas in here for sure so you are appreciated.
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I like your chances, Greg, and, I love to be visiting Rosie about now, lol. She and NeGA are in the sweet spot.
 
iGRXY said:
Newest RAP Kuchera.
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Oconeexman said:
We gotta hold on to something fellas! We still got some short range models on our side for sure. Tomorrow we have to look at observations compared to what model initializes the closest to truth. Big day ahead
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Loving the RAP .... but... the previous RAP was the one I want to hug!?
 

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iGRXY said:
Newest RAP Kuchera.
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Of course, the gradient between almost no snow and 6 inches is tightest right over my area. 15 miles is the difference between a trace of snow and over 6 inches north to south. Just goes to show you the boom/bust potential depending on how strong the wedge is and if the warm nose is over or under modeled. Usually, I'm a loser at these scenarios so I'll go with me getting at most an inch of snow sadly. I would love to be wrong though and I get hit with heavy frontend snow.
 
Radar returns looking better than most guidance over Tennessee/Kentucky (even if not hitting ground) I think this bodes well for our light Saturday event that will be limited to North Carolina.
 
dsaur said:
I like your chances, Greg, and, I love to be visiting Rosie about now, lol. She and NeGA are in the sweet spot.
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With some of these runs it makes me wonder. Usually NE GA does pretty well but most storms end up mixing for a while at some point. I just we can get a good winter storm for a lot of us. It makes me nervous to be in the sweet spot this far out
 
NE Ga Wx said:
With some of these runs it makes me wonder. Usually NE GA does pretty well but most storms end up mixing for a while at some point. I just we can get a good winter storm for a lot of us. It makes me nervous to be in the sweet spot this far out
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It's why I like a good no nonsense gulf low crossing Fla with cold air ahead of it, lol. Get's most everyone from Texas on to New England :) This one has sure changed a lot in a short amount of time. But cad is always under appreciated, and with good high pressure support thru out, can really outperform. Doing the whammy fingers for us all, lol.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Kuchera is most likely more accurate for northern areas of this storm where as 10:1 would be for the southern areas where temperature is not as cold at the sfc.
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Kuchera will generally be more accurate everywhere. The southern areas will probably be in the 6:1 to 8:1 range.
 
Stormlover said:
euro ...side note: wow, this place is quiet considering what may happen this weekend...what gives?
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I kept refreshing to see everyone’s excitement and you’re right; crickets in here. I like how consistent it’s continued to include our area even through the hesitation of our NWS in Huntsville up to this point. Looking forward to thet WSW popping in the morning ?
 
I'm modeled at 8-10 inches across the 0z suite except the Canadian which is 6 inches. If I can get 5 I'll take it to the bank. I had 8.75 in the last two events. Be nice to break into the teens on snowfall with a period of 10-15 days of more chances coming down the pike.
 
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