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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

metwannabe said:
For NC (central especially) I noticed the 12z eps "snow" footprint expanded slightly eastward, again indicative, at least imho, that the CAD is strong, slow to scour out and more zr/ip longer before that transition.
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Yeah, I think a general 1-3” of snow on the front-end could be very doable across central NC. As cold as it is and has been, it will stick immediately, which will be amazing. Something like February 2014 maybe. Maybe the ULL could deliver backend goodies, too?
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah, I think a general 1-3” of snow on the front-end could be very doable across central NC. As cold as it is and has been, it will stick immediately, which will be amazing. Something like February 2014 maybe. Maybe the ULL could deliver backend goodies, too?
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All your buddies to the west are praying for a super ULL for sure!
 
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When it comes to making call maps and just getting a general idea of what the potential for winter weather is, I love to use the NWS blend of all the models. It paints a solid 5-8" in the Northern upstate and along and north of I85 with a solid 2-4" in the central and southern upstate and south of 85 once you get into NC.
 
SnowsWonderful said:
Is it possible (since yesterday evening trends) that this becomes strictly an Apps runner & nobody wins in the southeast except Cumberland plateau and everywhere NE of there?
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At this point I would say it’s very unlikely simply because all the models are in very good agreement of an exceptionally strong CAD. Even the GFS which is by far the most west with the parent low and the most north with the transfer to the coastal is still a major winter storm for most of N Ga, Northern SC and western and central NC
 
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superjames1992 said:
Yeah, I think a general 1-3” of snow on the front-end could be very doable across central NC. As cold as it is and has been, it will stick immediately, which will be amazing. Something like February 2014 maybe. Maybe the ULL could deliver backend goodies, too?
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Yeah I feel good about a swath of 1-3 followed by some IP then ZR then just rain but I'm not sold on any backend stuff since it's moving south to north, if it was heading east maybe
 
The track of the low thru the plains on the GFS looks wonky, but NAM extrapolation , looks like it’s almost In lockstep with the GFS and primary low placement
 
Hard to beleive 36 hours ago we where talking.10-.20 qpf, ratios might get someone 4 inches of pixie dust fluff snow.
LOL back to climo reality: Aaaaaatleast the ground will be solid white, so I want complain. Plus the frozen centerblock is gonna take forever to melt with the forecasted pattern to follow.
Gonna be Very high impact event my area. Praying its a sleet fest after initial thump and not ridiculous amounts frzn rain.
 
If that low hugs the gulf coast does that put a lot more of us in the frozen precip with this setup?
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
When a weenie hasn't had a decent winter storm in his backyard in a few years, the said weenie looks for optimism wherever it may be found.
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We have the JMA and Korean Model on our side with much more suppressed solutions. Our weather originates in Asia if you go back far enough, so they should have the edge, right?! modernweenie
 
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