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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
HSVweather
Member
Precip further north 18z vs 00z
Heavy returns in the upstate
Dewpoints are running lower on this run than the 18z… plenty of dry air to tap into allowing wet bulb cooling to continue
Snowflowxxl
Member
Ehhh whether the final map is better or not ATL was warmer at the surface and 850 this run compared to 18z
HSVweather
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This is just beautiful. Absolute dumping under that.
JLL1973
Member
Hrrr could be a big run for north ms as a deformation band sets up
iGRXY
Member
Heavy returns really keeping dynamic cooling going in the northern upstate.
Even with the drier air; the 00z HRRR is moving the sleet/zr line more North barely getting into the Central Midlands.. this is a good sign so far for us... it still takes hold, but instead of being in the 29-30F range.. its more like the 31-32F range.. with the latter arguing for less accretion...
Really though, these are nuances and I'm trying to look for anything positive I can at this point for the area.
Really though, these are nuances and I'm trying to look for anything positive I can at this point for the area.
this is a pretty classic heavy rimed snow/sleet band, driven off dynamical cooling, you can tell of the deep blue returns especially 
Will be a completely different storm for those who can get 1-2” of initial snow before the sleet.
The HRRR is trending stronger with that FGEN band and is expanding it east. The soundings look great even down into York and Lancaster counties in SC.
That band reminds me so much of February 2014 when I got 2-3”/hr rates and thundersnow
HSVweather
Member
What a deformation band.
Nerman
Member
HRRR & EURO continuing in lock-step to show very similar solutions.
Snowflowxxl
Member
So ATL got no front end hit this run as opposed to “5 inches” at 18z. Let’s see what the back end produces
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Big deformation band looks like it could bring a couple inches to central and north Alabama. Temperatures hovering around 33/34 in that time frame. Would like to see it around freezing mark but I'll take what I can get.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Ooooof! That’s some heavy sleet in Downtown Greenville
JLL1973
Member
Precip was quite a bit north than on previous run. My main concern is the continued northward shift in future runs but man it’s pretty right now
HSVweather
Member
The HRRR snow algorithm is weird. It has us accumulating snow despite a changeover to sleet.
Hrrr pretty north with precip at 42.
Jessy89
Member
Does anyone actually believe the mountains turn over to sleet?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Here's a interesting thing for weather weenies. Dew points around 32 in central Alabama.aka Radiational cooling should be able to get to that 32. Man this is flirting with such a fine line. I have a gut feeling that the CAD is going to extend almost near Birmingham
Snowflowxxl
Member
Soundings reveal that during the peak of the snow band around Charlotte, 850s manage to cool off right below 0C, the DGZ is also fairly high as well and has plenty of omega, this points to IP/graupel/heavily rimed snowflakes on the front end with this solution, who ever gets under this will have fun for a couple of hours before IP takes over with this look, I would like to see the 3km show something similar and other CAMs, i think even the HRRR is overselling it a bit 
Grain of salt, and this is where the Globals still come in <48hrs, that is HRRR feedback parking a 999mb in NE GA, it's called orographic lift. Expect the NAM to dampen this at-least on 12km res. SLP will follow lower/mid level gradient, maximum delta T to the coast and right now this looks like the eastern FL Panhandle through the Coastal Plain as vertical stacking begins. Bombs away, feeling much better for western NC with elevation at this stage, highest tops are looking at several feet.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Fine line between WWA and WSW criteria in metro ATL. Good luck figuring out the line
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Now let's see what the 3km nam says lol. Still not fully trusting the LR HRRR lol.
The reason that I give it such attention in this situation is because it has a great history of catching onto these FGEN bands. It also helps that this something that the Euro had been very steadfast in the last several days, so it has that support. Also if you compare the different runs of the NAM today, you’ll notice that the NAM is moving towards what the HRRR is showing… it’s just having a problem catching onto the strong dynamical cooling that takes place from it
Stormlover
Member
hrrr
I would issue the WWA and if need be go to a WSW. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did that.
I would anticipate the fringe counties of the watch being upgraded to an advisory, and the inner counties being updated to a WSW. They completely canceled the Hazardous weather outlook statement for areas south and west hours ago, so that just just goes to show you they aren't even the slightest bit concerned about that area.
iGRXY
Member
Really cool to see that my area in southern Louisiana may get some flurries out of this storm. #lowexpectations
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
That low track on the HRRR isnt ideal for anyone in NC who likes snow (outside the high country)