Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[jackendrickwx]

I continue to have a hard time believing that, if the triangle start the event in the mid 20s as the euro advertises, we are able to bounce back above freezing. A lot of ice in that event

 

[Tarheel1]

View attachment 104483View attachment 104485Lights out ?

@olhausen , gonna get crushed based on this map! 2 double digit snows back to back! ?

 

[GaStorm]

This amount of ice would not be a good situation at all.View attachment 104488

Maybe we can avoid these totals with more sleet?

 

[iGRXY]

Hammering Anderson, GSP with snow! Gonna be a quick 2-3” thump of snow with that look! Good trends today on 12z suites!️

Drops a solid 4-8" before the changeover per the euro.

 

[Tarheel1]

I continue to have a hard time believing that, if the triangle start the event in the mid 20s as the euro advertises, we are able to bounce back above freezing. A lot of ice in that event

They are on the extreme East side of the classic damming location, depends on wher me the coastal front sets up! Have seen it 50s and rain in RAH and 25 degrees and pounding sleet/ZR in Greenville, SC

 

[superjames1992]

Don't like that icy look. I would probably pare that back a bit as sleet may be more dominate in the colder areas. Somebody is going to be rocked with heavy freezing rain, though. Combine that with the winds.....

If past experience says anything, it’s that models tend to underdo IP and overdo ZR. Seems like I’ve seen a lot of storms over the years where we got IP at times we were supposed to get ZR.

 

[Shawn]

so for CAE maybe little ice to rain?

I haven't caught up with everything yet today, but I think the OP GFS comes back to reality in the next few runs, more in line with it's ensemble mean; and believe that I-20 and North is in for a rough time. The particularly warm-biased ICON has quite an ice storm, Euro, NAM would, and UKMET at this point. Euro just slams us, again. So yeah; I-20 North, watch out.

 

[Metwannabe]

I continue to have a hard time believing that, if the triangle start the event in the mid 20s as the euro advertises, we are able to bounce back above freezing. A lot of ice in that event

Been there done that, stick around Wake Co a while, it will make you a believer.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Been there done that, stick around Wake Co a while, it will make you a believer.

Yeah I fully expect to surge to the upper 30s in Cary. But not sure if it’ll be before .5” of slop and zr has fallen

 

[Flotown]

Man here in far n bama we so close!!maybe we can trend back a little south

 

[GaWx]

Atl is literally right on the line. Could be mostly rain or a good bit of ice

The ZR extends all of the way to the AL border on the 12Z Euro. So, it suggests it isn’t borderline and that ATL has a good opportunity for its biggest icestorm since Feb of 2014 and the biggest on the northside since Dec of 2005!! This wedge apparently means business.

Side note: The last check on the MJO had it inside the circle then, which is favorable for an Atlanta icestorm per history.

 

[blueheronNC]

Been there done that, stick around Wake Co a while, it will make you a believer.

and Wake County specifically. Orange/Durham, sometimes. Alamance and west - not a chance.

 

[accu35]

That UUL on the Euro is following suit of the gefs. It’s digging south each run.

 

[FallsLake]

Indeed, though I don’t quite see how it takes that track with such strong CAD. Seems like it would need to be another 50-100 miles east? But I’m a modernweenie .

It switches it to rain from Raleigh, up to DC, Baltimore, NY City, and even Boston.

 

[SD]

I continue to have a hard time believing that, if the triangle start the event in the mid 20s as the euro advertises, we are able to bounce back above freezing. A lot of ice in that event

Done it many times in the past this looks pretty climo...bro. look over the nws rah past events page us1 is usually the fence that teeters around freezing with the deeper better cold about 50 miles west

 

[Flotown]

That UUL on the Euro is following suit of the gefs. It’s digging south each run.

Yeah we need it too

 

[Showmeyourtds]

For more to get into the snow, wouldn't we want this sucker to dig a bit more?

 

[SNOWMANN]

If past experience says anything, it’s that models tend to underdo IP and overdo ZR. Seems like I’ve seen a lot of storms over the years where we got IP at times we were supposed to get ZR.

This has sleetfest written all over it nw of 85.

 

[DopplerWx]

for western Carolina’s and upstate sc just have to hope we can get an inch or 2 of snow in the front band before it changes to sleet. Would be a nice storm if we can get some snow and a good bit of sleet on top.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This setup is so cold