Something about that NAM and it’s mixing issues in WNC got me thinking. We all pay attention when the NAM is throwing mixing issues out there inside 60 hours, because of the track record it has with sniffing out warm noses. However it also has a known problem with sniffing out the dynamic cooling that comes with a strong FGEN band of precip. It actually had problems with it in the December 2018 storm, but it was even more prevalent in that western SC Upstate, southern NC Mountains/Foothills event last February. The HRRR was steadfast as soon as it came into range and many just kept saying it would fold, but it never did. It wasn’t until about 6 hours before the start of the event that the NAM finally caught onto it. Not saying that definitely going to happen here, but it does play into know biases.