Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

@Parker BIG words from Ray’s weather center. He doesn’t pull out the “big snow” snowman very often. The alarms are sounding for WNC.

“We get a brief lull Friday night into Saturday morning. But all eyes turn to a potent low moving from the Great Plains to North Florida by Sunday morning. It then roars up the East Coast as a classic Nor'Easter.. This system has real potential as a snow-maker for the Southern Appalachians. Light snow may develop during the daytime Saturday into Saturday evening. The bulk of snow comes late Saturday night through Sunday with snow showers lasting well into Monday. Accumulations will be moderate to heavy. I was tempted to pull out the "Big Snow" Snowman-O-Mometer, but give that the culprit low is thousands of miles away in the Eastern Pacific, I decided the uncertainty was too great for such a move today. But beware, this has potential!

 

[iGRXY]

Better in the 50/50 area

 

[WxGSO]

CAD stronger on Canadian, so far versus 00z

 

[Zander98al]

Born and raised in Birmingham so just my .02.....You are more likely to get CAD into East Central AL than you are in the NE part of the state. I am talking about areas like Scottsboro, Guntersville, down to Gadsden are less likely to see CAD than Anniston. It used to happen a lot in the 80's.

When I say northeast Alabama I mean the northeastern chunk so most of east central Alabama as well lol ?. But I see what your saying. Depends how strong it is, on how far it will get really. I just want some snow lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro has a stronger low in the Atlantic but looks more amped, probably more qpf but similar results

 

[BelmontWX79]

soundings looks like sleet, not frz rain. just need to hope that warm nose isnt stronger than modeled.

I was talking about the greater Charlotte area. FRAM ice accumulations had a bullseye of 1" ice accrual from Rock Hill to South Charlotte to Monroe. But yes it's possible we stay mostly sleet. It's what's saved us for the past two decades.

 

[ATLwxfan]

I know some say CAD is always underestimated, but I have also seen times when it ended up being warmer than forecast when there's CAD.

Sure it has…but also depending on what’s eroding it. The point is we don’t know and can’t accurately predict at this stage.


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[alfoman]

Trend on the CMC (including today's 12Z run). OP GFS, I owe you an apology

 

[WxGSO]

Overall, Canadian 12z nearly the same as 00z. Maybe a touch colder CAD. MAJOR ice storm for preferred CAD areas in NC/SC and GA.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Good luck getting any “snow”, Georgia

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This should be interesting, 1 good, 1 bad trend

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 104464
Good luck getting any “snow”

Euro says hello serious ice fest for much of N GA!

 

[BufordWX]

Here it comes.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

850s are colder across NC/SC

 

[iGRXY]

mhmmmmmmm

 

[GaWx]

Ice fest for most of N GA!

 

[Metwannabe]

Definitely further north but also dang sure looks like it's trying to get a slp going in the panhandle of Fl, that would be different

 

[Mitch West]

Euro says hard pass on being a follower.

 

[iGRXY]

Euro is a similar track from 0z up the coast at 105.

 

[BufordWX]

Euro is very much a major ice concern along I-20.