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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Central NC and down east, horrible track

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Modeling the CAD is always the trick. Moisture is NOT going to be a problem with this storm. It's going to be a very bad ice storm for many. Hopefully, most of the ice will be sleet and not fzrn. Whomever gets the fzrn it's going to be lights out, literally. Also, the winds are going to be high, esp once the storm rides up the coast.
 
At 96 hours, the GFS and EMCF have nearly the exact same placement of the 500Mb low. Where the difference and improvements come after that timestamp is because the EMCF continues the upper low ene across N. Ga. rather than Kentucky as the GFS does.
 
Potentially nasty ice storm down to I-20. Impressive CAD signature. QPF amounts look a little wonky tho...I would think there would be more precip. Didn't see a ton of convection along the panhandle. Wonder what it could be. I have to be missing something
 
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