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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

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Brad Travis WAFF 48 Meteorologist​



There remains a lot of uncertainty with the weekend storm but there is enough concern that it could have a big impact in North Alabama and Middle Tennessee. Hazardous driving conditions could develop as we get later into the day on Sunday once temperatures drop into the upper 20s. For this reason, we are going with a First Alert Weather Day for Sunday. Most of Sunday morning the temperatures will likely hold in the middle 30s as the rain begins to change over to snow from west to east. By late morning we could have bands of heavier snow or sleet develop and this could allow temperatures to drop below freezing and allow more accumulation of snow. Right now, 1-3" of snow can be expected in much of our viewing area. In areas where heavy snow sets up, we could see double that number. This continues to be a developing situation. Black ice on areas roads Sunday night into Monday can be expected regardless of snowfall totals. Those planning on traveling this weekend should be prepared for possible hazardous driving conditions across parts of northern Mississippi, north Alabama, Tennessee, and north Georgia.
 
Shawn said:
An official product out of CAE that I have seen (not sure if it's public yet) has up to .4 inches of ZR accumulation for the CAE region proper. So that's well past the criteria I know of off hand.
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.25 would be the old ice storm warning criteria. It obviously falls under winter storm warnings now which that much ice.
 
IF the wedge strength is being underplayed (like normal), continue to expect shifts south.. I still don't expect the primary low to cut thru the wedge (unless it stays on the wedge boundary)

Granted, southerly flow aloft will be ramping, which MAY have the SFC low try to ride along the coast...but with every depiction I've seen so far, the wedge boundary continues to reside offshore out towards the Western Wall of The Gulf Stream... That's where I'd expect a jump to occur or the primary to likely take it's path.

Guidance historically misjudges the erosion down in the Coastal Plain in SC.
Expect further downward adjustments on temps, track, and column crash with such potential heavy rates before latent heat processes can take over
 
superjames1992 said:
I still honestly expect those sleet maps are way underdone and a lot of what is showing up as ZR on those maps will turn out to be sleet, especially on the northern periphery. I’d be surprised if the predominant P-type here isn’t IP.
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That’s what happened in December of ‘02
 
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