• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

metwannabe said:
Losing the Ukie hurts

sfct_b.us_ma.png


View attachment 104437
Click to expand...
Laughable model. Pittsburgh goes from zilch to 18” in one run. Are you kidding me???
 
So will euro cave more into gfs? We will see
 
BullCityWx said:
For comparisons sake, freezing rain started at 28 degrees in the 2002 event. You’re telling me that freezing rain could potentially start 3 or 4 degrees colder than that? 2+2 ain’t that hard if you’ve been through enough of these.
Click to expand...
Yes, I suspect icing will overperform the modeling. I’m becoming less and less optimistic about our snow chances, but I think this could be a major pinger and/or ZR storm, even out our way.
 
The evolution of the storm’s progression from snow to IP to ZR reminds me a lot of Fab Feb ‘14, though not necessarily the synoptic setup.
 
I'm meh on this one at this point for anyone along I-20, especially near Atlanta. I know that CAD can squeeze its way down into the city sometimes, but I'm thinking that we'll be alright unless those lower DPs squirm down this way. Losing the snow signals that we saw yesterday on the Euro & UKMET hurts, but I think the trend is pretty clear.

Do we bet against this wedge, Chris? @deltadog03
 
Nerman said:
Not this time. CAD will be strongerView attachment 104440
Click to expand...

We can’t wishcast cold or bittercast warmth. We can say what we know and that is that our mid to long range models very frequently do a lousy job with CAD forecasting and we will know more as we get closer and as the mesoscale models come into range.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Natedogg25 said:
Do y’all think the Cad will be strong enough to reach into west ga and EC Alabama?
Click to expand...
Snowfan said:
I don’t think so.
Click to expand...
I think it's a given it being in west Georgia. But also depends on the exact track of the low. CAD is just winds flowing backwards down the apps causing more shallow cold air. Which is hard to pick up nonetheless by models. But from what I've experienced typically it'll get Around to the Northeast side of Birmingham on the edge of the apps. But the more serious CAD is in the Northeast portion of Alabama.
 
One thing to remember when comparing potential to the December 2002 storm is the time of the season it’s coming in. That 2002 storm occurred early in December after a mild fall and there were still a lot of leaves on the trees… so that allowed a lot more ice to accrue than what you get on the bare trees we have. Not trying to downplay the threat here, but we just need to remember there were other factors that made that storm so damaging
 
ATLwxfan said:
We can’t wishcast cold or bittercast warmth. We can say what we know and that is that our mid to long range models very frequently do a lousy job with CAD forecasting and we will know more as we get closer and as the mesoscale models come into range.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I know some say CAD is always underestimated, but I have also seen times when it ended up being warmer than forecast when there's CAD.
 
Chazwin said:
One thing to remember when comparing potential to the December 2002 storm is the time of the season it’s coming in. That 2002 storm occurred early in December after a mild fall and there were still a lot of leaves on the trees… so that allowed a lot more ice to accrue than what you get on the bare trees we have. Not trying to downplay the threat here, but we just need to remember there were other factors that made that storm so damaging
Click to expand...
I hear ya, but up this way the trees where bare bones then, save a few brown oak tree leaves that hang on till spring. The surface temps in low 20s coupled with 1.5 of qpf is a bad recipe. Espeacilly if we lose sleet sounding early in the game.
 
Zander98al said:
I think it's a given it being in west Georgia. But also depends on the exact track of the low. CAD is just winds flowing backwards down the apps causing more shallow cold air. Which is hard to pick up nonetheless by models. But from what I've experienced typically it'll get Around to the Northeast side of Birmingham on the edge of the apps. But the more serious CAD is in the Northeast portion of Alabama.
Click to expand...
Born and raised in Birmingham so just my .02.....You are more likely to get CAD into East Central AL than you are in the NE part of the state. I am talking about areas like Scottsboro, Guntersville, down to Gadsden are less likely to see CAD than Anniston. It used to happen a lot in the 80's.
 
So this Is supposedly all snow right? I’d normally be thrilled to see this but operational is not showing anything like this. It seems more likely this will be an ice/ZR threat then snow at this time no? The ens wasn’t showing means anywhere near this for our last snow. This is one of the better means I’ve seen but I don’t feel anywhere near confident that this will become reality. This one just feels like a messy mix. ?
F78B60F5-CE1D-4AA1-8968-0EA2C6DD5F8F.png
 
Zander98al said:
I think it's a given it being in west Georgia. But also depends on the exact track of the low. CAD is just winds flowing backwards down the apps causing more shallow cold air. Which is hard to pick up nonetheless by models. But from what I've experienced typically it'll get Around to the Northeast side of Birmingham on the edge of the apps. But the more serious CAD is in the Northeast portion of Alabama.
Click to expand...
Thank you I know it times past in some winter situations locally we were colder and in some thunderstorm situations we also colder due to the E or NE winds. That’s why I was asking.
 
1642010552136.png

I've got a feeling that the 50%-70% along the 85 corridor likely where WPC see's the transition zone between more snow and ice starting to setup.
 
ATLwxfan said:
We can’t wishcast cold or bittercast warmth. We can say what we know and that is that our mid to long range models very frequently do a lousy job with CAD forecasting and we will know more as we get closer and as the mesoscale models come into range.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I wasn't wishcasting and agree we need to get closer. I was pointing to the map showing the stronger cad. Like this one. That's all we have.Can.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top