Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Parker]

I see mixed bag potential at times but I don’t believe we’ll see a full fledged ice storm up that way. I’m watching though. Still a lot of time.

I don’t think I’ve ever been so hyped about chasing a storm before. I’ve seen plenty of 2-4 inch scenarios and even some 3-6, but this is complete big dog potential for western NC mountains. Hope it trends well for everyone, but this is a fun one to track. Long duration too!

 

[Tarheel1]

In the 2002 ice storm, in GSP, as bad as it was, there was a lot more sleet than expected! That prevented it from being even more damaging!

 

[NCSNOW]

Anybody have surface maps for 02’? Did we have negative dews into central VA? I seriously doubt it.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The GEFS might not be fully on board with a low pressure running inland...but I would have to think that it might be closer on the temps?

Which isn't great when we're talking ice.

 

[Nerman]

@NWSAtlanta

 

[NCSNOW]

Good read on 2002 if interested

A crippling ice storm struck North Carolina 20 years ago

It took up to 10 days for power to be restored.

spectrumlocalnews.com

NC Extremes: An Ice Storm for the Ages - North Carolina State Climate Office

This post is part of our year-long series about North Carolina's weather extremes. Winter weather in North Carolina can be a fickle thing. When cold air and moisture come together at the right time, the outcome can be an impressive snowstorm. However, even small temperature differences...

climate.ncsu.edu

Dew Points: and it was an inland LP

 

[BelmontWX79]

may be sleet
View attachment 104405

If GFS verified would be catastrophic for Charlotte metro!

 

[KyloG]

GFS for Charlotte. ?

 

[DopplerWx]

If GFS verified would be catastrophic for Charlotte metro!

soundings looks like sleet, not frz rain. just need to hope that warm nose isnt stronger than modeled.

 

[WxGSO]

Big trends from a lot of snow on the 85 corridor yesterday, to now sloppy ice storm, could easily trend to just rain! 3-4 days is an eternity in tracking winter storm

Big trends from a lot of snow on the 85 corridor yesterday, to now sloppy ice storm, could easily trend to just rain! 3-4 days is an eternity in tracking winter storms

I know the models are going to change, but for the I-85 corridor up through NC, I can't imagine it's going to be rain, at least not the non frozen kind.
Here's what typically happens in CAD events. 1. There is usually a period of front end snow that is under forecast 2. The temps are ALWAYS under estimated...it's always colder. 2. Some, if not ALL models scour the CAD out way too quick. At least that's what my experience has seen. This storm could be a sleet fest for many!

 

[griteater]

What are the chances that the CAD will get scoured out with the HP sliding off into the Atlantic?

This is actually a pretty solid setup with the CAD. Sfc high to the north tucks in behind the trough / low in SE Canada with -20C 850mb source region temps over Maine (bottom right). The strong southern wave going negative tilt actually adds additional confluent flow running into New England, holding the sfc high in there a little longer than would otherwise be the case.

For the CAD to fail, I think we'll need to see a combination of the trough over SE Canada scooting out to the east faster and the southern wave go stronger and farther west. The model depiction of temperatures in the damming region is quite cold as of now

 

[NWMSGuy]

Glad to see the GEFS mean increased around the Mid-South.

 

[Chazwin]

While I think the chances of snow are decreasing rapidly, the chances of ice/sleet have significant increased along the 85 corridor from GSP/CLT/RDU, but the UK has a bad bias of scouring out damming events to quick, I’d imagine many CAD areas barely get close to 32 thru the whole storm once the fgen generated precip starts

To add to this another aspect is just how robust that initial FGEN band is… a solid enough thump that puts down a quick 2-4 inches of snow and drops the temps back into the low 20s with undoubtedly help to hold CAD in stronger and longer… it’s just a matter of are the 925s supportive of keeping things mainly sleet and just how much ZR is there. As for freezing rain being a self limiting process, that’s true but if your in the 22-25 degree range when the ZR starts it’s gonna take a while to make it above 32. I can still remember in the December 2002 storm in Concord where I was living at the time, the sleet and snow switched over to freezing rain when the temp was 25 degrees… it wasn’t until

 

[Natedogg25]

Do y’all think the Cad will be strong enough to reach into west ga and EC Alabama?

 

[Snowfan]

Do y’all think the Cad will be strong enough to reach into west ga and EC Alabama?

I don’t think so.

 

[Natedogg25]

I don’t think so.

Thank you

 

[NCSNOW]

Where u live?


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Northern Randolph County. Packfan 98, Ollie should have memory of this one if they where around back then

 

[Tarheel1]

Having the cold air in place in the Carolinas, is already a big, big, win for this potential!!

 

[DopplerWx]

catastrophic freezing rain model runs have been just as prevalent as the biblical snow outputs the past few years. usually the 1-2" frz rain apocalyptic bullseyes end up being a sleet fest.

 

[NEGaweather]

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