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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

bigstick10 said:
Can you show the source please? Thanks (maps).
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Pivotal showed nil:

FYI, these are free to anyone- but if you aren't sure, here's how:

1) Go to www.pivitalweather.com
2 Models >Under "global", select UKMET > Winter weather > 24 hr accumulated snowfall (10:1)1642179715703.png
 
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NCSNOW said:
Im rooting for the Icon: Ill take that 12 ukie 10;1. Cant complain when you gonna get your grass covered and see white everywhere outside the window. No matter how crusty or Soft. Passes my standard for a good storm
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Would certainly be a good look -- boom scenario. I'm not even looking at the globals at this point, I don't think that they'll correctly portray totals at their resolution. I personally would be surprised if anyone sees above an inch of pure snow NE of Davidson. Sleet may be a different story though.
 
One positive I am seeing on shorter range guidance is the sleet line extending further into South Carolina. This is key to the I-20 zone. A further track South with the low, the more chances the ZR line gets shunted South right along or even South of I-20 with sleet being the predominate precipitation type and into Snow (before the changeover) as you head North through the state. Still too early to tell where precipitation types line up though.
 
FamouslyHot said:
Does anyone have WSW criteria on hand for NWS CAE? I'm looking for guidance with criteria similar to this page for FFC.
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An official product out of CAE that I have seen (not sure if it's public yet) has up to .4 inches of ZR accumulation for the CAE region proper. So that's well past the criteria I know of off hand.
 
DopplerWx said:
best guess for clt metro:

T - .5" snow -> 1-3" sleet -> .10 frz rain on top.
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I’m gonna be bullish and say 1-2” of snow because I think that FGEN band is gonna give a good quick thump with good rates. 1-2” of sleet, maybe higher. As for ZR, I’ll say right about .25” around far SE Union County decreasing to .1” towards northern Mecklenburg
 
Shawn said:
An official product out of CAE that I have seen (not sure if it's public yet) has up to .4 inches of ZR accumulation for the CAE region proper. So that's well past the criteria I know of off hand.
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My guess is that the criteria is similar to FFC, with .25" of ice being warning-level. I'd expect a watch extended into Lexington and Richland given that there's a decent chance we see 0.1 - 0.25" ZR that far south.
 
FamouslyHot said:
My guess is that the criteria is similar to FFC, with .25" of ice being warning-level. I'd expect a watch extended into Lexington and Richland given that there's a decent chance we see 0.1 - 0.25" ZR that far south.
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Their official website product already shows 0.25 in the forecast. So, these other ones I speak of may or may not be used in the mainstream public and are the worst case scenarios... or preemptive graphics if needed instead of having to make them later.
 
Update from Memphis:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1100 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

.UPDATE...

A nice and quiet morning across the Mid-South, minus all the
phone calls. 06Z model guidance continues to advertise a
smorgasboard of solutions with respect to the winter storm that is
about 30 hours away. The good news, however, is that hi-res
ensemble data is nearly at our fingertips. The hope is to upgrade
some portion of the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning
with this afternoon`s package. For now, the current forecast
looks to be in line with last night`s 00Z data, with the brunt of
the snowfall occurring along the I-40 corridor in west Tennessee.

The main forecast concern today will be with where the
deformation zone sets up. This is where the best lift, shear, and
moisture overlap and produce intense snowfall rates. This zone
tends to set up in bands, of which there could be several tomorrow
night and into Sunday morning. Areas in the deformation zone have
the potential to see serious impacts, due to much higher snowfall
amounts. Hi-res data should help to sort our the highest
confidence region soon.

The current forecast is on track with no major changes needed at
this time.
 
Does WeatherBell have more data from the UKMET than pivotal? I'd love to get a Kuchera Map, Sleet Map, and FRZ RN map. Pivotal only has 10:1 snow maps and temperature.
 
packfan98 said:
Does WeatherBell have more data from the UKMET than pivotal? I'd love to get a Kuchera Map, Sleet Map, and FRZ RN map. Pivotal only has 10:1 snow maps and temperature.
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No, WeatherBell just has very minimal UKMET output.

Edit: I emailed them about it a long time ago. They used to have all of the UKMET output several years ago but it got very costly so they decided to drop it. That is a head scratcher as the UKMET is one of the best models out there.
 
It was mentioned earlier about an obs thread but as for now as we've done with recent events, all post specific to this system, including observations, will stay in this thread. It keeps it simple, also easier to moderate..... with that in mind, this place will be extremely busy so all one liner, off topic, this model sucks, how much for me, snow chasing, does Mack's chair still have snow comments will be deleted fairly quickly. Help us help you, use the whamby/banter thread and use this for storm specific info only, please and thank you
 
DarkKnight said:
It’s still works out ok. View attachment 105418View attachment 105419
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This one definitely has way more boom or bust potential then the last one. The gfs wants to snow hole this area the last few runs while the euro was a huge increase at 00z last night. Some people are going to be really happy while others not far away will be very sad. Patiently waiting on 18z euro as the 06z was better then gfs but was cut in half on snow from the 00z.
DCC64D59-00D6-4F49-ABB2-D0368582FC82.png
A927B244-3038-414B-9380-D8007A570D57.png
 
DadOfJax said:
Yea, not much doing for AL
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Yep unfortunately. Unless there's a snow day surprise. Which isn't out of the realm of possibility. It'd probably have to do with the CAD being more stout and the low being further to the south. But time will tell. I'll be happy with atleast 1 inch though lol
 
This forecast like many southern weather events are just gonna be to tough to navigate it seems like we always either over perform or under perform in most part of the south. It seems outside of NE GA and parts of NC/SC interior nothing else is seemingly locked in even less the 2 days from onset. The areas out west MS,AL, Western GA thru I-20 thru Atlanta and also parts of SC won't know what to expect until we most likely see radar returns.

Western side of SE is so dependent on the ULL and a strong precip band being on the backend and not being completely pulled NE dependent on the low track and Easterly parts of SC and NC are dependent on the CAD and low track as well to be more coastal.

Things like ULL and backside moisture and CAD strength won't be absolutes until we see it with our own eyes.
 
Zander98al said:
Yep unfortunately. Unless there's a snow day surprise. Which isn't out of the realm of possibility. It'd probably have to do with the CAD being more stout and the low being further to the south. But time will tell. I'll be happy with atleast 1 inch though lol
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You will have to drive way north just to see that inch brother.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
When will the warnings get hoisted?
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I think they’ll wait until the overnight update.. at least for GSP, CAE, RAH…there will probably be different types of warnings. Just for GSP they may have to issue Winter Storm Warnings, Winter WX Advisories, Ice Storm Warnings, and honestly for some of the mountain area in NC… Blizzard Warnings
 
9am sun euro
1642345200-9kXVZdzcZ1Y.png
 
Call me stupid, but the cams y'all were talking about that overdue the cold. And snow, may be a actual good thing to look at. Because that would probably be what the boom in the forecasts look like to a degree. If the other models misforcast the depth of cold. Just my 2 cents. But if your looking for a snowy surprise check the cams. Still would like to see how far the HRRR will put the low towards the south. Any shift south will pay dividends for chances of snow for alabamians
 
Love how the LP at 48 wants to visit Dega, then go to Myrtle Beach at 54. It is consistent though. Perhaps a bit more robust with the wedge. Keeps DPs above 32 in ATL until hr 54, but that's when the ULL rotates in.

If the SL would stay further south through AL, that would be better for backside stuff.
 
We can still use the Euro, GFS, etc as guidance but now we're heading into the time frame of them being less a bit more obsolete. Short-term models are pretty much going to start telling the tale from this point moving forward. Beginning with the NAM and then of course the HRRR and REGM.
 
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