Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[DopplerWx]

quite a spread.

 

[SnowNiner]

UK looks similar to Op Euro. We have fairly good consensus building now. ICON in that camp too.

I think GFS isn't handling the transfer correctly but that's just my opinion.

You have the UK map you can share? If the Uk stays firm that would make many happy.

 

[iGRXY]

Still a solid hit with 6" snow means along and north of 85 from NC through SC.

 

[WxGSO]

quite a spread.
View attachment 104424

That's probably because it is showing a transfer of the lows

 

[griteater]

QPF is no joke here. GFS has over 2 inches in SC upstate to AVL to CLT. Major winter storm

 

[DopplerWx]

That's probably because it is showing a transfer of the lows

you're right. here is 108hr

 

[iGRXY]

Looking at the individual member panels on weatherbell and it's really a pretty even split between colder and snowier memebers and icier members.

 

[SnowNiner]

That's probably because it is showing a transfer of the lows

I think we've lost the GEFS. The primary lows are all amped and the transfers are all on shore. Just bad. Not what we want to see IMO. Only hope I think is that the GFS family is out to lunch, with Euro/Ukmet/Icon more correct.

 

[NCSNOW]

Dejuva! Eerily similar. Qpf +1.25, surface temps low 20s.

 

[KyloG]

GEFS/EPS right on top of each other....cad regions going to get a heck of ice storm

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Summary - Ice storm/sleet storm with the possibility of a SN FGEN band in the beginning ? CAD trended even colder in the NC Piedmont

 

[Stormlover]

gefs says the op is too far north

 

[Cadi40]

Unfortunately any freezing rain that does fall will likely stay around for quite awhile given the low temperatures next week.

 

[DopplerWx]

2" of qpf, just wild. praying for sleet and not frz rain.

 

[KyloG]

You have the UK map you can share? If the Uk stays firm that would make many happy.

You can watch it come in here. I could only see coarse panels earlier.

Models: UKMET - Pivotal Weather

View UKMET weather model forecast map image for 2 m AGL Temperature in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.

www.pivotalweather.com

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Unfortunately any freezing rain that does fall will likely stay around for quite awhile given the low temperatures next week.

I think highs in the 40s next week is plenty warm enough to melt ice.

 

[NEGaweather]

CAD is a little stronger for NE GA Gainesville to Athens this run. Gonna be a mess IMO


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[DopplerWx]

gefs members sunday morning 7am.

 

[Flotown]

Starting to look pretty decent up here in nw bama...let's see how it goes

 

[KyloG]

Hopefully this is a case where instead of FRZN it's IP....I remember in 2014 it was modeled as mostly FRZN and we got a lot more IP.