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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

NickyBGuarantee said:
No I know they’re cold biased but always interesting to look at. They usually do well with temp profiles when you get really close to the event
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Eh. They are usually the last ones showing snow for me. And it ends up not snowing. False hope up the last minute.
 
Well this would be quite bad. Basically a disaster waiting to happen. Heavy Icing with temperatures in the 20s throughout the I-20 areas in SC and GA? The saving grace is that no other models show this. However this shows that I-20 areas in far west SC/GA are not out of the danger zone for major icing just yet. We need to watch over the next 24-36 if other models trend towards the much colder solution that the HRW WRF-ARW model shows zr_acc.us_se.pngsfct.us_se.png
 
For the N. Georgia area ice crazies (me), if ever surface temps were to verify a little colder than modeled it would happen on a strong NE wind. 20mph with gusts to 35+ qualifies and at least that part seems rock solid.
 
SimeonNC said:
Imo, it's looking more likely that CLT and the immediate NW burbs are gonna be saved by sleet, even the WPC seems to have the worst of the ZR just south and east of CLT.
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I agree with this. If I had to put money on it, I would say that eastern York and Lancaster Counties in SC and then going NE from there in Anson County, NC will have the longest duration of ZR and the heaviest accrual. Just N and W in Union and western Stanly counties and west if there, still some ZR… .1-.25” with sleet being the dominant precip and a good bit of it
 
chapelhillwx said:
I will eat my hat if it is 18 degrees at GSP and 24 at ATL at 12z Sunday like the WRF-ARW shows. Still even if it's a few degrees too cold, could be sniffing out that the CAD will be stronger than we thought.
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Yes, that's what I'm concerned about. Even if you adjust it up 3 degrees, it's still 29 to 30 and icing up. Add the winds, which all of the models are showing, and we have power concerns. the NAM 3km wind gusts are really starting to concern me. I'd rather this stay rain and not add extra weight to the trees. I lost power on that last storm due to high winds alone.
 
NCSNOW said:
I documented all the qpf outputs for models and all the latest where above1.0 except ukmet was down to .9.
You are correct, just 30 hours ago they all where 1.5-2.0 heer in the Triad and uniform back to the ridge line

My expierence with transfers is we always end up less than modeled qpf. I'll be suprised with more than .75 qpf north of 40 from Asheville to Burlington
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I think there are a few things that will help precip wise in this case:

1. Low transfer occurs in Bama as opposed to E TN
2. Wave is going negative tilt
3. Strong and closed 850mb low is oriented in such a manner that the typically reliable overrunning forcing builds in nicely (seen here)

Of course, all of those things are a net negative with respect to temperatures aloft (warming)

0o10rdR.gif
 
chapelhillwx said:
I will eat my hat if it is 18 degrees at GSP and 24 at ATL at 12z Sunday like the WRF-ARW shows. Still even if it's a few degrees too cold, could be sniffing out that the CAD will be stronger than we thought.
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I mean even if it’s running around 4 degrees too cold, you’re still talking about mid 20s with precipitation
 
Question for someone smarter than me: At what point do we look at radar returns vs what's modeled (HRRR)?

I assume this will help with nowcasting, but the returns do look to have a larger precip shield.
 
chapelhillwx said:
I will eat my hat if it is 18 degrees at GSP and 24 at ATL at 12z Sunday like the WRF-ARW shows. Still even if it's a few degrees too cold, could be sniffing out that the CAD will be stronger than we thought.
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Good point.

And, we're going to test the ICON's so-called warm bias too.
icon_T2m_seus_19.png
 
griteater said:
I think there are a few things that will help precip wise in this case:

1. Low transfer occurs in Bama as opposed to E TN
2. Wave is going negative tilt
3. Strong and closed 850mb low is oriented in such a manner that the typically reliable overrunning forcing builds in nicely (seen here)

Of course, all of those things are a net negative with respect to temperatures aloft (warming)

0o10rdR.gif
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So what makes this time any different than storms of the past? Usually the high is retreating and WAA takes over and we end up with eroding CAD and lower totals with rain mixing in….

What makes this trend more towards ice this time? I would think we end up like normal climo would suggest, of course I am not the most knowledgeable when it comes to reading models.
 
tucker said:
Question for someone smarter than me: At what point do we look at radar returns vs what's modeled (HRRR)?

I assume this will help with nowcasting, but the returns do look to have a larger precip shield.
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If you are crazy enough to be on this weather board, you are never allowed to look at radar....only modeled output! I kid of course. Never a bad thing to compare actual conditions with the forecast
 
SouthGarnerSleet said:
So the 4-6k foot elevations of NC are getting an ice storm now? yeah... no. I dont buy this one bit.

Also, this will be a steady to heavy rain = these totals are wayyy overdone.
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As he said above these totals are already taking into account runoff, temps, and rates. The NWS totals and locations mimic these totals in most areas so they're quite believable.
 
tucker said:
Question for someone smarter than me: At what point do we look at radar returns vs what's modeled (HRRR)?

I assume this will help with nowcasting, but the returns do look to have a larger precip shield.
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You can look at atmospheric returns over the mid-west and Dakotas probably later tonight and within 24 hours start observing the actually radar returns and temps...Meso portal gonna be a big on for this one|

SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis

www.spc.noaa.gov
 
TigerSnow said:
So what makes this time any different than storms of the past? Usually the high is retreating and WAA takes over and we end up with eroding CAD and lower totals with rain mixing in….

What makes this trend more towards ice this time? I would think we end up like normal climo would suggest, of course I am not the most knowledgeable when it comes to reading models.
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It's really just a thing where this setup is better than normal cold air damming wise. The surface high hangs on pretty well over the NE (the ocean low running up the coast helps some as the high tucks in behind that feature, preventing it from scooting out to sea). But more importantly, the source region over the NE and down into VA is pretty cold and dry, seen here with the single digit and below zero dewpoints in VA (a good benchmark). Having this in January helps as well, prime climo for cold. The damming does get eroded on the SE flank though as the wave goes negative tilt

DcpMSyx.png
 
griteater said:
It's really just a thing where this setup is better than normal cold air damming wise. The surface high hangs on pretty well over the NE (the ocean low running up the coast helps some as the high tucks in behind that feature, preventing it from scooting out to sea). But more importantly, the source region over the NE and down into VA is pretty cold and dry, seen here with the single digit and below zero dewpoints in VA (a good benchmark). Having this in January helps as well, prime climo for cold. The damming does get eroded on the SE flank though as the wave goes negative tilt

DcpMSyx.png
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Thanks for that explanation. I guess I am hoping to saved here North of Charlotte by sleet… Still worrisome for some road issues on Monday but hopefully the power won’t be a big issue.
 
Don’t remember the Greensboro met on here saying qpf won’t be an issue a couple days ago but it’s clearly an issue now for some in the west and north. Still a lot but some models have reduced by as much as 60%!
 
iGRXY said:
Still wonder if the HRW suite of models have a cold bias in the upper atmosphere. Those temps are definitely a bit overdone as mid to upper 20's are going to be expected and not upper teens but if there isn't a cold bias above 2m then add that to the HRRR, 3K, and Euro.
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I am absolutely hugging those for the upstate, some of the other were looking pretty bleak. Interstingly enough, the GFS has been trending better for the upstate but still... 3k and long range HRRR looked good, I wish we could cash out on those.
 
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