TWC with Euro ice effects:
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
To go with my reasoning above; CAD is slow to erode and always overdone, especially by the GFS operational run. The NAM will allow us to see thermal profiles better here in next few days. I will say though, that the slower this thing is, the more chances of a Northern track. The support we have/had to the North.. to suppress and keep this thing South's window is closing.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
But how far south do you think ZR would extend ? Griffin?
LovingGulfLows
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Yes, ideally, you want the center of the ULL to be just to the south of you for some of the heaviest snows.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah I have had it go from onset ice and snow to 50ish and heavy rain and then back to snow on the backside all in 12 hrs lol.....
Pretty sure I am on the outside looking in this time around, gonna take some pretty big shifts at this point to get this back to a classic snowstorm for MBY....the SE trend down the stretch is rare, but I gotta think/hope this is as far NW as it goes and we see it take baby steps back east....dont wanna be bullseye 4 days out blah blah blah.....
iGRXY
Member
For the upstate and NC/SC board counties, this is where we are at snow wise on the Kuchera before switching over to sleet. a solid thumping of snow. Uses about 0.7" worth of liquid on the initial snow and temps are in the mid 20's so ratios would probably be pretty stout.
It'll be interesting to see just how much of a front end thump we get here and how much if any over performance there is on initial cooling. Won't change the long term game but someone in this area could get a quick 2-4 of snow/sleet before changeover
how about Columbia SC? How do you think we will do with MJO?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
So taking the Euro verbatim, it'd be rain, then that freezes and turns to a sheet of ice as 7 or so inches of snow piles up on that. Then we switch to sleet and get an inch on that which switches to freezing rain and drops .25 to .5 inches on that, following a coating of up to 2 inches of snow on the back side. A sandwich that spells disaster for the power grid.
ryanardo
Member
Yeah if the system pans out to even half of that, it's still bad
NWMSGuy
Member
Would anyone believe we would see a deform band set up with this look? Would rates be higher than currently advertised?
iGRXY
Member
The ZR down around I20 is going to be bad. Aiken to Columbia into the pee dee are going to get wrecked. Looking at the soundings it's a quick burst of snow to sleet, then the soundings are definitely ZR soundings.
Below is a sounding for Columbia:
Below is a sounding for Columbia:
You'd want it to dig yes but that's still irrelevant if it's trying to run the primary west of the Apps. You need this to take on a Miller A look, not a Miller B
Thanks for that. Exactly my thinking at this point.
You would normally, but the original low(surface through 700mb) is occluding as the transfer begins to take place.
YetAnotherRDUGuy
Member
For NC Dec 2002 comparisons—that one had miller b low develop offshore as it lifted NE. This one’s stubbornly determined to take a shortcut inland. The CAD is stout though (and probably similar to that setup).
IP super cells? ?Looks very wonky
IP islands