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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

WeatherNC said:
Grain of salt, and this is where the Globals still come in <48hrs, that is HRRR feedback parking a 999mb in NE GA, it's called orographic lift. Expect the NAM to dampen this at-least on 12km res. SLP will follow lower/mid level gradient, maximum delta T to the coast and right now this looks like the eastern FL Panhandle through the Coastal Plain as vertical stacking begins. Bombs away, feeling much better for western NC with elevation at this stage, highest tops are looking at several feet.
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The low traveling up through GA into NC caught my eye too. Hard to make sense of it.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
925s are colder In NC on the 12km probably gonna be a very sleety run
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Yes they are. These 925 temperatures are probably the biggest reason that I’ve not been buying into the these big ZR totals for CLT metro. These soundings have been showing sub-freezing from 925mb down to the surface yet the surface map output shows ZR.
 
ref1km_ptype.us_state_nc_va.png
 
12KM NAM shows the HRRR might not be crazy trying to keep us right at or slightly above freezing here in the CAE area during the heart of precipitation. More good signs that argue against major ice accretion. 3KM NAM a tick colder though.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
But the 3km is kinda bearish around CLT with the band, that trend north with everything including the 850 low isn’t very ideal View attachment 105745
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Always seems to happen with most every storm. Lets hope this is not the start of a trend but it is a little discouraging. We are getting closer to crunch time.
 
I don't trust the NAM's PTYPE maps at all with how the column looks, not with how much dynamic cooling would happen. No way it takes 3 hours of 40 dbz snow to break 1800 ft of warmth that mind you is being funneled in from the wedge (so it's being cooled in 2 ways) and it stay all rain that whole time.
 
Something about this NAM run that's Just weird. Not sure What but I think it's just not picking up on Something. Maybe it's not picking up on the Dynamical Cooling?

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Nam has 850 low in Murphy , runing the apps lol. We can say adios to any backside flakes with that track.

Also spells big time trouble with more freezing rn predominant over sleet

The saving grace would be less qpf as we will dry slot, downslope if this is the case.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
850s are noticeably warmer on the 0z NAM here
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Unless I’m missing something, I don’t see that much warmer for ATL area in general vs 18Z. Maybe 1C at most for warmest. Even so, that’s still only +5C, which is still very ZR friendly assuming there will be ample precip falling much of the night and strong wedging/east winds Sat night to get that low level cold air to ATL. And before that 850s still suggest IP to me.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Notice the nam has increased ZR soundings in the second half of the storm for CLT along the the fv3 hi res, shows more of a warm nose vs a cool layer
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The bad part about the timing on that is that by the time the soundings are becoming predominant for ZR, the heaviest of the precip is moved through and we’re just left with light freezing rain and temperatures in the 20s…everything will freeze on contact and accrual a lot more efficiently than with heavy rain
 
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