Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Snowflowxxl]

If the NAM is even close to correct it gonna be hard to switch over to all rain if you start out frozen

 

[iGRXY]

 

[BufordWX]

Clear trend to stronger CAD on Icon the last few runs.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh my

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Ingested new data, has made the GSP forecast, absolutely ridiculous!! @Jimmy Hypocracy ???View attachment 104583

it’s the big one! I honestly hate to leave if it’s going to be an epic snow here but I’ll take my chances on the mountain. I can enjoy the biblical snow I mean ice when I get back home monday.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Wouldn't this still be considered a hybrid Miller a/b i always thought a Miller b was a low that tracked up into N Tennessee S Kentucky that transfered off too the coast. Now those setups always dry slots the nw piedmont/foothills with the transfer but this setup is diffrent.

This setup still varies by up to 1” in qpf for some areas up this way between the models. 0.75” total qpf vs 2” qpf is major differences. I would side with lower amount given the dry air.

 

[SNOWMANN]

ICON coming in colder and further south.

Not by much but subtle changes like this between now and go time can make a huge difference.

 

[SnowNiner]

Tough because I know we all had pure snow in the mid 20s on our mind but this is bound to be a fun one esp if we can get a nice thump of snow on the front end. Hard not to get excited with Ens output like this.
View attachment 104580

At this point I'm bargaining. If I can get 4 inches thump prior to change over......deal. I'll take the sleet/freezing rain. I think the nam is going to work it out for me. I may have a shot just north of the metro.

 

[iGRXY]

ICON does change over but a lot later. Should be some decent totals shortly.

 

[Chandler]

Close to the teens for some in NC before the carnage begins...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Front end thump

 

[SNOWMANN]

This setup still varies by up to 1” in qpf for some areas up this way between the models. 0.75” total qpf vs 2” qpf is major differences. I would side with lower amount given the dry air.

Yeah I could see my area down along 64 get a lil more precip I doubt I get more than 1.25 max and thats probably overkill.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Backend flakes for many in GA

 

[GaWx]

Having Augusta in the same zone as the north and eastern suburbs of Atlanta makes me discredit his map completely, sorry.
View attachment 104554

Why do you say this? In 2014 Augusta got much more than NE Atlanta burbs (although that was because NE burbs had much more IP and snow) knocking down Eisenhower tree at Augusta National. It can happen and has at times. Augusta is a pretty wedge friendly city.

 

[J.C.]

Icon is below freezing from the metro north and east Sunday morning.


This is the precip map at the same time with the Icon not depicting ZR at the surface.

 

[DopplerWx]

Icon very similar to the euro with the front end thump of snow.

 

[Ollie Williams]

I honestly think that surface temperatures are so cold for much of NC that snow is likely to stick on contact if we can get any. That will make the situation all that much worse if we get a changeover to freezing rain.

 

[Chattownsnow]

I feel like a lot of people are gonna be turned off to sleet and freezing rain after this event. Gonna be some major disruptions to a lot of folks in GA, NC, SC. This isn’t a marginal set up. This is looking very crippling for a very large area.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

If the ICON is showing that kind of CAD, it’s gonna be serious. Major winter storm incoming

 

[Chazwin]

At this point I'm bargaining. If I can get 4 inches thump prior to change over......deal. I'll take the sleet/freezing rain. I think the nam is going to work it out for me. I may have a shot just north of the metro.

I think CLT metro as whole is gonna do ok with the initial thump… if I had to say right now I think down my is good for 2-3” before the sleet sets in, and I could see up your way getting a solid 4-5” before mixing