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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Zander98al said:
Models show cad still affecting Northeast quadrant of Alabama through Sunday, can't say it won't reach subfreezing here. Temps are already forecasted at 33/34 by the time the backend of the system comes through. Along with winds coming from the Northeast from the apps through Sunday.
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www.tropicaltidbits.com

HRRR Model

HRRR model forecast of 2m Temperature (shaded) for Southeast U.S.
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com

If you click on that link, then go from hour 22-28, notice how the colder temps are advecting from the NW into NE AL. That's not wedging, but typical CAA on the backside of any cyclone. The wedge doesn't have anything to do with whether or not NE AL sees snow from this system.
 
jrips27 said:
I mean this is brutal even if you take 25% off these values

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If ever a CAD were to overperform, with those winds speeds, it would have to be this one. Who knows, maybe those crazy wrf models showing the CAD area temps 5-8 degrees lower than the NAM and HRRR are onto something? Or on something o_O
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
If ever a CAD were to overperform, with those winds speeds, it would have to be this one. Who knows, maybe those crazy wrf models showing the CAD area temps 5-8 degrees lower than the NAM and HRRR are onto something? Or on something o_O
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I spent two days talking up that model. Now I think it might be stone cold crazy! 42° in Alpharetta. I don’t thing we hit our projected high of 47° if the cad builds


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LovingGulfLows said:
www.tropicaltidbits.com

HRRR Model

HRRR model forecast of 2m Temperature (shaded) for Southeast U.S.
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com

If you click on that link, then go from hour 22-28, notice how the colder temps are advecting from the NW into NE AL. That's not wedging, but typical CAA on the backside of any cyclone. The wedge doesn't have anything to do with whether or not NE AL sees snow from this system.
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The temps are already 33/34 near freezing by that point as the cold air should be rushing in from the northwest. It all works out in tandem. With CAD through most the day sunday keeping us near freezing. And somewhat snowy. Forecast snowfall totals follow this CAD younger through the Northeast quadrant.Screenshot_20220115-090348-948.png
 
Zander98al said:
It will for the Northeast quadrant of the state. Where a winter storm watch or advisory could be issued depending on the trends of how the
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Zander98al said:
The temps are already 33/34 near freezing by that point as the cold air should be rushing in from the northwest. It all works out in tandem. With CAD through most the day sunday keeping us near freezing. And somewhat snowy. Forecast snowfall totals follow this CAD younger through the Northeast quadrant.View attachment 105899
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CAD does not keep us snowy….merely cold at the surface. Snowfall does not follow CAD, it follows the track of the ULL, which is why you have snow in TN. CAD will aid in NC where the cold air is much deeper, but it simply doesn’t do it in AL. Never has, never will.
 
DadOfJax said:
CAD does not keep us snowy….merely cold at the surface. Snowfall does not follow CAD, it follows the track of the ULL, which is why you have snow in TN. CAD will aid in NC where the cold air is much deeper, but it simply doesn’t do it in AL. Never has, never will.
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Okay I understand ?, it should still be good for us though when the backside comes through and the dynamic cooling takes place.
 
39.6/27, winds NE 13 gusts to 20
intermittent sunshine for about 1 hour earlier this morning, now overcast
wedge effects beginning in this area
(clarify my location: I started a job in Greensboro 3 months ago that I could not turn down; family still lives in Greenville SC, but will eventually move to NC; Triad is highly underrated)
 
RollTide18 said:
NAM still showing wraparound show in Alabama fwiw. Still not understanding how part of North Alabama get rain and parts of South Alabama get snow


nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_29.png
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Check the soundings.
 
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