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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Current SE obs:
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Wild Weather Monger said:
I moved from Social Circle 20 years ago thinking that an extra 10 miles north might help one day...not. Sadly, when we bought this house, it was down to this one and another in Habersham. The wife won that round.

38.3 with a light ene wind currently. Forecast high of 51. Let's see if we can top out below 45!
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Right down the road from you in Monroe. 40.8 winds ENE 5.8. Definitely saw a TON of squirrels and birds this morning running around like crazy. They are better indicators than these dang models a lot of times ?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I appreciate it! This cabin has Hughes Net internet service..not really any service out here but we’re only about 10 minutes from I26. Hoping ALL utilities remain in tact.
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Your on a good spot man you'll get smoked be prepared to hunker down and enjoy I'm going to attempt buck creek N.C 80 tomorrow around noon give some obs on the warm nose along the blue ridge. N.C 80 takes you to the base of Mt. Mitchell 3800ft at Buck creek GAP
 
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Probably a little more than what the 3K is showing as it’s really just now starting to pick up on the dynamic cooling that HRRR has been steady showing and showing more of.
 
KyloG said:
3km NAM doesn't have precip reaching the triangle until 15z-16z tomorrow.

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and by 20-21z RDU is above freezing. Hopefully we won't have to worry to much about losing power.

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I noticed that. I was hoping for an hour or two of snow before the change over here, HRRR and Euro still gives us a shot. The air may just be too dry before heavier returns move in.
 
Stormdoc said:
I noticed that. I was hoping for an hour or two of snow before the change over here, HRRR and Euro still gives us a shot. The air may just be too dry before heavier returns move in.
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The only hope Raleigh has of seeing snow will be if precip gets here much quicker….ala 2014.
 
Low of 25.5 this morning. Currently, it’s 30/28. I won’t have any problem with surface temps and QPF. I’ll stay below freezing all day tomorrow. It’s that darn warm nose.

I’ll either get 2” of snow/sleet and 0.4” of freezing rain or 4”/0.1”. These systems are so dynamic and models are sketchy even at this range. There will be both pleasant surprises and disappointment across the board.
 
40 and cloudy here where I’ll be riding this out 6 miles east of Alpharetta, GA

NWS Atlanta has done a great job with this one so far.

I threw a Atlanta specific call map in the other thread and would love to hear some takes over there or on Twitter. It could easily bust.

Let’s reel it in boys and girls. Stay safe!!

 
NAM while adjusting amounts across parts of MS/AL/GA still has everyone with snow sorta leans into latest HRRR etc...

Watch your Temps watch the CAD today all these details are gonna be huge for totals all the way into East AL
 
Flurry said:
A little more oomph with the CAD and NE Jefferson could come into play


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CAD has nothing to do with whether it snows in AL or not. It’s all about the 500mb low placement and if there is any moisture left over.
 
DadOfJax said:
CAD has nothing to do with whether it snows in AL or not. It’s all about the 500mb low placement and if there is any moisture left over.
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It will for the Northeast quadrant of the state. Where a winter storm watch or advisory could be issued depending on the trends of how the CAD does. On the backend of the low.
 
jrips27 said:
40 and cloudy here where I’ll be riding this out 6 miles east of Alpharetta, GA

NWS Atlanta has done a great job with this one so far.

I threw a Atlanta specific call map in the other thread and would love to hear some takes over there or on Twitter. It could easily bust.

Let’s reel it in boys and girls. Stay safe!!

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Not bad man. I’m near Northpoint mall just to your west and it’s really feast or famine here for the northern most part of Fulton county. 3km NAM was a tick west with snowfall which May portend better temp profiles. I’d put us in the 1-2 inch range right now but could bust either way.


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Wild Weather Monger said:
I moved from Social Circle 20 years ago thinking that an extra 10 miles north might help one day...not. Sadly, when we bought this house, it was down to this one and another in Habersham. The wife won that round.

38.3 with a light ene wind currently. Forecast high of 51. Let's see if we can top out below 45!
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Yes, you sacrificed my friend! Currently 40f ENE 6 mph. I see where they’re saying CAD moving into Bama so one would think we can overperform on this side of town
 
Zander98al said:
It will for the Northeast quadrant of the state. Where a winter storm watch or advisory could be issued depending on the trends of how the CAD does. On the backend of the low.
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CAA winds on the backside of the system will be coming in from the northwest which isn't associated with the wedge. The wedging only truly matters for the frontend of the system and the subfreezing temps simply won't reach AL from the wedge...they barely reach the Atlanta area.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Wow, I've had an East/ENE wind now for a little while...just goes to show you how just being even 25 miles east of ATL can have a difference in the wedging.
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Yep. Looking at Wunderground, the PWS’s east of the connector and 400 are almost all E and ESE winds. The ones on the west side are almost all W and SW. There be the battle zone - and I’m smack in it.
 
Raleigh is such a tough call right now and what will end up being key for impacts is how early can the precip make it here and how dry and cold it is at that time. HRRR still wants snow for 2 hours or so then sleet and barely any freezing rain .. other models have no snow and instead a little sleet followed by most freezing rain and gives us warning criteria accretion .. interesting to watch this play out on radar .. usually precip in these type of events move in faster than modeled
 
LovingGulfLows said:
CAA winds on the backside of the system will be coming in from the northwest which isn't associated with the wedge. The wedging only truly matters for the frontend of the system and the subfreezing temps simply won't reach AL from the wedge...they barely reach the Atlanta area
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Models show cad still affecting Northeast quadrant of Alabama through Sunday, can't say it won't reach subfreezing here. Temps are already forecasted at 33/34 by the time the backend of the system comes through. Along with winds coming from the Northeast from the apps through Sunday.
 
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