He is a professional, and his opinion matters. 2014 is literally the only time I've ever seen this happen, but generally CAD is much sharper, narrower, hugging closer to the east side of the mountains, areas below freezing that is.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
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He is a professional, and his opinion matters. 2014 is literally the only time I've ever seen this happen, but generally CAD is much sharper, narrower, hugging closer to the east side of the mountains, areas below freezing that is.
Showmeyourtds
Member
This is correct. Very little in the way of ZR for that storm for in-town & NE suburbs. That was mostly a sleet producer until the cold core low moved over & dropped another few inches of snow.
Solutions should settle in the next 24hrs, in many ways it’s a hybrid not classic A/B, expect the transition zones to sharpen somewhat and a tick NW inside 48, status quo. Still a mess and easy NESIS 3, 4 depends on track along or just off the Mid-Atlantic/NE. Many areas will see most of there snow from the front end wet tongue.
iGRXY
Member
Solid as hell to get these types of totals from the ICON at this range. Could be seeing the hinting of maybe some more south movement in the guidance
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah, I have my doubts that this actually brings ice here (although considering that the ICON is apparently warm biased, then maybe I am going to see ice), but...
1. CAD does work here. It doesn't always mean that there is going to be wintry weather, but I can remember plenty of times where my high for the day was predicted somewhere in the 60s, or 50s, and it never got there due to CAD (which is why I called out the 12z GFS).
2. There has been major ice here before.
Some, yes. But some others here have posted they know the potential consequences and still want a major icestorm just like hurricane and severe wx seekers want those.
Chattownsnow
Member
Places in central GA go from 50’s modeled to mid 30’s lol
I know it has been said over and over but it will be very interesting to see what shifts we see especially into tomorrow morning as the wave finally gets sampled. Sure, there usually isn’t a massive change but we all remember that Christmas 2010 storm where it made a huge difference.
You can see here after the initial snow (will take awhile to reach the ground) there is a lull in intensity shown over SC. That will likely lose the snow growth for most outside of the foothills. It’s gonna be painfully slow to moisten up the lower levels of the atmosphere while watching Georgia mtns get it. Further on, if 1-3” falls it will lock in the cad and the majority of the event for everyone will be Ice. It’s not so much a thump IMO it’s just the storm evolving and locking in the mixed bag for a big area.
iGRXY
Member
Even if we don't see major shift south, we could start seeing more snow (especially on the front end) and a longer time to switch over based on the cold air being deeper through out the atmosphere than what the models are originally seeing.
Impressive front end amounts, obviouly ice will be the bigger issue regardless
Clem282340
Member
Is this all snow or does it count ice and sleet as well
Yeah but hard to see that helping the Triangle much (right now anyway)
Lol
The high of 48 in Greenville on Saturday , should be slightly concerning! I know it’s a super wedge and all that, but I have been burned sooooo many times by cold not arriving in time, and starting out as rain, but will quickly turn to snow type forecasts! Just food for thought, no matter how perfect the storm appears
BHS1975
Member
Yeap low needs to transfer over near SAV and stay offshore.
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tucker
Member
Thoughts for us in Chattanooga