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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

wow at that hrrr
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KCAE as of now, has downgraded the Winter Storm Watch areas of the Central Midlands to Advisories, but have expanded them. Basically saying the guidance over night was warmer but its tricky.. and not sure enough to upgrade any area to a warning down here. Hopefully this is what plays out unless you're a psychopath who wants an ice storm.

Edit: i was made aware that an advisory is technically an upgrade from a watch.
 
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Shawn said:
KCAE as of now, has downgraded the Winter Storm Watch areas of the Central Midlands to Advisories, but have expanded them. Basically saying the guidance over night was warmer but its tricky.. and not sure enough to upgrade any area to a warning down here. Hopefully this is what plays out unless you're a psychopath who wants an ice storm.

Edit: i was made aware that an advisory is technically an upgrade from a watch.
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Yeah, that never made sense to me when less is required for an advisory from a winter storm criteria
 
Peachtree NWS changed advisory of Forsyth and Cherokee down to WWA but added more metro counties and then upgraded more northern counties to Winter Storm Warnings. Funny part is my county (Forsyth) still has same forecasted impacts as we did when we had the watch. ??‍♀️
 
NAtlantaStudio said:
Peachtree NWS changed advisory of Forsyth and Cherokee down to WWA but added more metro counties and then upgraded more northern counties to Winter Storm Warnings. Funny part is my county (Forsyth) still has same forecasted impacts as we did when we had the watch. ??‍♀️
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Huntsville AFD

Beginning around or shortly after sunrise, boundary layer flow will
back to the north-northeast as the mid-level low and its related
surface cyclone accelerate northeastward in response to an amplifying
northern stream trough across the northern Plains. Resultant low-
level cold advection will lead to a gradual transition from rain to a
rain-snow mixture, that should initially begin across northwest AL
before shifting southeastward through the morning hours. It is still
unclear how much snow will accumulate on the surface given the
antecedent rainfall, but at this point we will maintain amounts
ranging from a trace up to one inch across northwest/north central
AL. Precipitation will quickly end from southwest-to-northeast during
the afternoon as deep-layer flow backs further to the northwest in
the wake of the departing storm system, but this will occur as the
low-level thermal profile becomes more conducive for very light snow
or snow flurries. Overall, it still appears as if the highest
likelihood for snowfall accumulations in the 2-4 inch range will be
across the higher terrain of southern TN/northeast AL, where a Winter
Storm Watch remains in effect. A brief period of light freezing
drizzle may also occur in this region, with glazing potentially
resulting in a greater risk for hazardous travel.
 
PARSONBROWN said:
Huntsville AFD

Beginning around or shortly after sunrise, boundary layer flow will
back to the north-northeast as the mid-level low and its related
surface cyclone accelerate northeastward in response to an amplifying
northern stream trough across the northern Plains. Resultant low-
level cold advection will lead to a gradual transition from rain to a
rain-snow mixture, that should initially begin across northwest AL
before shifting southeastward through the morning hours. It is still
unclear how much snow will accumulate on the surface given the
antecedent rainfall, but at this point we will maintain amounts
ranging from a trace up to one inch across northwest/north central
AL. Precipitation will quickly end from southwest-to-northeast during
the afternoon as deep-layer flow backs further to the northwest in
the wake of the departing storm system, but this will occur as the
low-level thermal profile becomes more conducive for very light snow
or snow flurries. Overall, it still appears as if the highest
likelihood for snowfall accumulations in the 2-4 inch range will be
across the higher terrain of southern TN/northeast AL, where a Winter
Storm Watch remains in effect. A brief period of light freezing
drizzle may also occur in this region, with glazing potentially
resulting in a greater risk for hazardous travel.
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HUN is less than impressed…. Guess I don’t blame them.
 
I won't shocked if NWS Atlanta extend the WWA down to Henry, County, GA and southwestard.
 
So just out of curiosity.. and off a comment from last night… anybody got an analog date for a storm with these predicted whacko paths of the low? Agreed winter wx of any precip type is very different here in the south.. but this storm in particular … the models have shown some very strange possibilities ?‍♀️
 
Returns showing in N AL & N GA. I wonder if that is reaching the ground. Don't remember seeing it modeled this early. Looks like a little snow in NE GA already.
 
MSnowAtl said:
I won't shocked if NWS Atlanta extend the WWA down to Henry, County, GA and southwestard.
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I sure hope so.

That would be a rock-solid indicator that the wedge is overperforming. FWIW, I'm sitting at 35 just to your NE with what looks to be a solid cloud deck rolling in. I know, I know but when even one or two degrees makes all the difference when on the fringe, every little bit helps.

Usually, in freezing rain CAD situations, the freezing surface layer is scoured out top to bottom with the warmer air aloft and latent heat release. What's different with this storm in the CAD region is there will be a sub-freezing layer at 925Mb and at least close to freezing at 850Mb. With a screaming NE wind constantly feeding in, it'll be fascinating to see if we're able to mix that down to the surface and overperform greatly.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I sure hope so.

That would be a rock-solid indicator that the wedge is overperforming. FWIW, I'm sitting at 35 just to your NE with what looks to be a solid cloud deck rolling in. I know, I know but when even one or two degrees makes all the difference when on the fringe, every little bit helps.

Usually, in freezing rain CAD situations, the freezing surface layer is scoured out top to bottom with the warmer air aloft and latent heat release. What's different with this storm in the CAD region is there will be a sub-freezing layer at 925Mb and at least close to freezing at 850Mb. With a screaming NE wind constantly feeding in, it'll be fascinating to see if we're able to mix that down to the surface and overperform greatly.
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I checked some observations around the metro, and the winds are already coming in from the E/NE 6 to 10 mph.
 
33/26 right now near Monroe, NC. Mainly overcast with just a few breaks still off to the east. Kinda suprised by the amount of cloud cover, as the grids weren’t really bringing them in until later this morning. The forecast high is 44, and that’s actually come down from 47 since yesterday… still gonna be hard to do much more than 38 or 39 with a NE breeze and overcast skies
 
Six Mile Wx said:
Is the High to the north splitting our low in half? We really need the low further south View attachment 105851View attachment 105852
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It’s definitely moving further north then I’d like to see. I think the best window for upstate snow mostly north of 85. Is before that low gets to us because then warm nose turns it to mostly sleet and freezing rain. I posted on the Facebook group not to hug these huge 6-10 inch totals showing up on these short range models because sleet gonna compact this snow down. 6-10 will probably be 2-3 messy inches of snow sleet and some ice glaze


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
MSnowAtl said:
I checked some observations around the metro, and the winds are already coming in from the E/NE 6 to 10 mph.
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Yeah. And some of those models showing sustained at 20-25 mph with higher gust as we approach go-time is something else.

My high is forecasted to reach 50 today. I doubt it, seriously.
 
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