iGRXY
Member
Highs are expected to be in the upper 30's to lower 40's.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Icon would be a damaging ice storm for areas
Yeah I was just about post GSP has highs mainly in the low to mid 40s for the upstate into CLT metro on Saturday.
The only thing that can save Raleigh is if the southern low speeds up or the low dropping in from Canada slows down. I have a feeling over the next 3-4 days we are going to get the opposite...southern low slower, Canada low faster.
cloudy with precipitation falling from the sky is about the only sure thing right now lol
NBAcentel
Member
Have a somewhat decent feeling the GFS is probably gonna have more confluence, even at hour 12 it’s a tad more west the TPV, just need the bomb off the eastern coast to work out
NAM is okay when it comes to forecasting potential temps/cad even longer range. The 18z has the look of a storm that is shunted South as many have alluded to; because of the CAD and quite a big deal if extrapolated.
Don’t worry, I don’t think you’re going to get the dreaded cold rain. It should be mainly ZR.
Clem282340
Member
Is this storm like a hybrid A/B or is it just a Miller B
Chattownsnow
Member
I’m no meteorologist by any means but going on climo and 21 years experience in the area, while following models since 2008-2009, I’m guessing some sleet changing to rain to start out here. WAA kicks in quickly up the valley and we end as snow showers on the back end while the 500 vort passes just south. A surprise on the back end in this situation is not off the table. We had that in Feb. 2014. It’s all good though many chances still ahead.
Seems like more of a hybrid to me, though that may change. Hybrid is probably better for most of us compared to a straight Miller B (a.k.a. Miller Screw).
iGRXY
Member
Depends on the model really. Most are like a Miller B.
That's the problem GaWx, I don't want the ice.
I think it's pretty certain this is going to be a very widespread winter storm with ALL frozen precip types throughout northern GA, much of SC and NC. Crippling for some, unfortunately. This CAD is something we haven't seen in many years.
Major ATL ZRs since 2000:
-Two in 1/2000 (back to back weekends amazingly enough including one with the Super Bowl there)
- 1/2005
- 12/2005
- 2/2014
All of these with MJO inside the circle. I experienced all 5 of them.
ATL is pretty overdue though not extremely so. But northern burbs are very overdo as the last was 12/2005.
-Two in 1/2000 (back to back weekends amazingly enough including one with the Super Bowl there)
- 1/2005
- 12/2005
- 2/2014
All of these with MJO inside the circle. I experienced all 5 of them.
ATL is pretty overdue though not extremely so. But northern burbs are very overdo as the last was 12/2005.
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Believe me, I wish it were going to be all snow for everyone, but that simply is extremely rare for the SE, even for me in Greensboro.
Winter storm Izzy! ??
My flight connecting home through CLT on Sunday at 6:40pm from LAX is.....well.....let's just say I'm preparing to sleep in LAX lol.
Seriously though....what are the thoughts about us right on the crystal coast beaches? Will we be cold enough for frozen precip?
Seriously though....what are the thoughts about us right on the crystal coast beaches? Will we be cold enough for frozen precip?
WYFF sounding the alarm. Saying massive totals in the NC mountains.
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I think it’s the strongest damming event I can remember since at least 2014
The 18z GFS has the wave a decent tick east!I believe most would prefer a Hybrid A/B over B cut down on Ice more snow potential
NBAcentel
Member
Nooo, but 
ATLwxfan
Member
NEGaweather
Member
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Jrips2710
Member
GFS looks quicker but a bit stronger
I got you but don’t shoot the messenger
Also, many wx fanatics want it whether they admit it or not. They always talk about the dreaded rain and 33 as being the worst thing, not the dreaded rain and 32 or 31.
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I don’t remember people mentioning the ICON was a bit faster.
iGRXY
Member
The warm nose over Mississippi and Alabama at 75 doesn't look as stout this run. 850's Slightly colder over the Carolinas as well.
NBAcentel
Member
I expected to be more confluence on the GfS given it ticked west with the TPV like the icon did early on but I guess not, weaker confluence but faster system
Nerman
Member
GFS shows the system in the SE in 72 hours
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GFS is trying to go for one of those fingers of overunning precip on the NC/VA border.
ATLwxfan
Member
She wants to cut…
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Looks like snow in the upstate at 84. Not any massive differences vs 12z but maybe a bit colder?
Snowflowxxl
Member
The GFS is gonna magically improve drastically in one run. It’a been steady with its solution
That ZR line keeps ticking north each run on the GFS