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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

The high of 48 in Greenville on Saturday , should be slightly concerning! I know it’s a super wedge and all that, but I have been burned sooooo many times by cold not arriving in time, and starting out as rain, but will quickly turn to snow type forecasts! Just food for thought, no matter how perfect the storm appears
Highs are expected to be in the upper 30's to lower 40's.
 
Yeah but hard to see that helping the Triangle much (right now anyway)

The only thing that can save Raleigh is if the southern low speeds up or the low dropping in from Canada slows down. I have a feeling over the next 3-4 days we are going to get the opposite...southern low slower, Canada low faster.

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Thoughts for us in Chattanooga
I’m no meteorologist by any means but going on climo and 21 years experience in the area, while following models since 2008-2009, I’m guessing some sleet changing to rain to start out here. WAA kicks in quickly up the valley and we end as snow showers on the back end while the 500 vort passes just south. A surprise on the back end in this situation is not off the table. We had that in Feb. 2014. It’s all good though many chances still ahead.
 
Is this storm like a hybrid A/B or is it just a Miller B
Seems like more of a hybrid to me, though that may change. Hybrid is probably better for most of us compared to a straight Miller B (a.k.a. Miller Screw).
 
Major ATL ZRs since 2000:

-Two in 1/2000 (back to back weekends amazingly enough including one with the Super Bowl there)
- 1/2005
- 12/2005
- 2/2014

All of these with MJO inside the circle. I experienced all 5 of them.

ATL is pretty overdue though not extremely so. But northern burbs are very overdo as the last was 12/2005.
 
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My flight connecting home through CLT on Sunday at 6:40pm from LAX is.....well.....let's just say I'm preparing to sleep in LAX lol.

Seriously though....what are the thoughts about us right on the crystal coast beaches? Will we be cold enough for frozen precip?
 
I think it's pretty certain this is going to be a very widespread winter storm with ALL frozen precip types throughout northern GA, much of SC and NC. Crippling for some, unfortunately. This CAD is something we haven't seen in many years.
I think it’s the strongest damming event I can remember since at least 2014
 
I expected to be more confluence on the GfS given it ticked west with the TPV like the icon did early on but I guess not, weaker confluence but faster system
 
Looks like snow in the upstate at 84. Not any massive differences vs 12z but maybe a bit colder?
 
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