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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Clearly its how fast the high slides into the blocking position on the icon. A faster storm or slower H building in is what would make it shift back to its 18Z run positions.
 
If you want to see just how serious the rainfall with this thing is going to get. Just look at the current radar over Florida. Huge bands already rolling in from the interaction between Ian and the stalled front over central Florida. This trough is serious business and you can bet there’s going to be some big totals all along that from as it moves north.
 
iGRXY said:
2nd LF in Savannah as potentially a cat 1 again. Huge rainfall all over SC, NC, Georgia. This track would really increase the winds even more over our area.
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I’m not sure when the last time that a hurricane made landfall in GA…it’s obviously rare due to the shape of the coastline, but this would certainly be a rare track
 
Geeze, 00z GFS is already 10mb weaker and slower vs 18z at hour 24.
 
iGRXY said:
I highly doubt you see any weakening over that small portion of Cuba. If anything the friction from land looks to be helping consolidated the eyewall and form the eye now.
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Wait, how does this work? Friction from land helping consolidate, I’m interested in that….(Sorry if banter).
 
iGRXY said:
If you want to see just how serious the rainfall with this thing is going to get. Just look at the current radar over Florida. Huge bands already rolling in from the interaction between Ian and the stalled front over central Florida. This trough is serious business and you can bet there’s going to be some big totals all along that from as it moves north.
Click to expand...
Agreed and this is why I would not be suprised at all if the rain spread much further north in advance than what models are showing now. Remember what the radar looked like when Floyd’s eye was still east of Jacksonville, there was rain spread all the way up the east coast into New England
 
Eh, GFS crazy nvm. It initialized the storm way too weak vs recon. 977mb lolz
 
Wouldn't the GFS being weaker than reality miscalculate speed/direction though?
 
Bruh, it is STILL sitting over tampa at hour 72. that 29 inch map is only going up + surge. ruh roh
 
you’re playing Russian roulette staying in Tampa at this point. They’re going to be pushing 3 FEET of rainfall on top of 10-12 feet of storm surge for 24 hours. You need to get out ASAP if you’re thinking of riding this out.
 
And then. And THEN it decides to slowly crawl up the west coast of Florida after walloping Tampa just to make emergency response an absolute nightmare
 
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