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Tropical Hurricane Ian

And the gefs spread opens at 90 hours. This is gonna be a tricky one. At 18z there was a strong cluster in the NE gom and none over water in the Atlantic hardly but now it's spread out and has a few more off the Florida east coast.
 

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The rain totals on the GFS weren’t nice to Tampa, but at least the storm surge is lessened because the center is south.
 
Yeah, Ian trying to go super Saiyan before the Cuba visit.
recon_AF301-1809A-IAN.png

The eye has also shrunk 10 NM since the previous pass also.
778
URNT12 KNHC 270442
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022
A. 27/03:56:10Z
B. 21.38 deg N 083.66 deg W
C. 700 mb 2783 m
D. 961 mb
E. 305 deg 8 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C22
H. 97 kt
I. 185 deg 8 nm 03:53:30Z
J. 285 deg 91 kt
K. 187 deg 11 nm 03:52:30Z
L. 86 kt
M. 040 deg 18 nm 04:02:00Z
N. 135 deg 96 kt
O. 042 deg 22 nm 04:03:30Z
P. 10 C / 3048 m
Q. 17 C / 3042 m
R. 3 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF301 1809A IAN OB 29
MAX FL WIND 96 KT 042 / 22 NM 04:03:30Z
;
 
Possible Zone B will follow A with a mandatory if these solutions look likely tomorrow
 
ILMRoss said:
Unsure Tampa, Florida, and the federal gov at large really have an idea of how catastrophic this is going to end up being
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The only thing that could really save Tampa from a historically destructive storm would be a landfall to the south and east that stops the worst of the surge from funneling into Tampa Bay, and even then the wind damage in the Tampa area would still likely be extensive. In any case, somewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast is likely to face one of the worst hurricanes for the state in recent memory.
 
Chazwin said:
I used to completely dismiss those insane amounts off hand thinking there’s no way they could verify, but after seeing them be right in Houston with Harvey and Wilmington with Florence, we know absolutely they can verify
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I grew up outside Houston with Alvin's 43 in in 24 hours in mind (Tropical Storm Claudette, July 1979). Out that way on the way to the beach after a good rain, one might see people jet skiing down the full ditches.

abc13.com

Tropical Storm Claudette dumped more than 40 inches of rain in 1979

In 1979, Tropical Storm Claudette dumped 42 inches of rain in the Alvin area in just 24 hours. That record still stands 40 years later.
abc13.com abc13.com
Not even Hurricane Harvey could top that rainfall production in one day. Harvey's highest 24-hour rainfall was 25.6 inches.
...
Clear Creek was a mile wide in some spots.
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texascooppower.com

Alvin’s Deluge: It Reigns

Gulf Coast town holds U.S. record for greatest rainfall in 24 hours
texascooppower.com texascooppower.com
They had no sense of what was to come, but their dogs must have. When the Klappers turned in for the evening, the dogs hid under their bed. At around 2 a.m., one of the dogs jumped up on the bed and woke Richard. He nudged it back down to the floor, but it didn’t land with the patter of paws; it landed with a splash. Richard turned on his bedside lamp and realized their entire bedroom was flooded.
Click to expand...
 
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The ukie may have a better handle on this due to weak steering. It's been rock steady thus far.


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