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Tropical Hurricane Ian

UK looks to be out in the Atlantic day 3 and over SC coast day 4. Off to bed.
 
Looks like Tampa is the area the models are focusing in on for landfall. Question is will it go inland after landfall, or back over the Atlantic and make a second landfall in the SE?
 
Tropical tidbits doesn't even have a color scale for the raw amount of rain for tampa.

pivotal reads out 45 inches AND its still lightly raining


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iGRXY said:
If you want to see just how serious the rainfall with this thing is going to get. Just look at the current radar over Florida. Huge bands already rolling in from the interaction between Ian and the stalled front over central Florida. This trough is serious business and you can bet there’s going to be some big totals all along that from as it moves north.
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The flooding has already started in Miami. This was my college campus this afternoon after a 2 hour downpour; water was thigh deep on most roads around campus. Water was shooting through manhole covers throughout low lying areas as the sewers backed up. Wasn’t too out of the ordinary as these are occasional occurrences during thunderstorms, but will get worse over the next day as rain becomes more consistent and heavy. Will also be concerning if surge starts to compound the flooding. Predictions are only for one to two feet of saltwater inundation max here, but that could be enough to put the drainage system over the top during the most extreme downpours. Fortunately, Miami should definitely avoid the worst of the storm. However, if the surge and rainfall in Tampa become as bad as some predictions, they have a historic situation on their hands.04FB9F98-E1DB-4694-A0AB-567DDAFE2708.png
 
Well, GFS's ultimate track gets Eastern AL involved with substantial rain this time.. and all of us, really.
 
Canadian looks to head to the big bend again, maybe a bit inland over northern FL
 
Yep better maps show that canadian is well east of it's last run.. id be getting out of tampa bay
 
So we still have the 2 camps. One keeps it moving up along the east coast and the other slows or stalls over eastern gulf Tampa area
 
Shaggy said:
So we still have the 2 camps. One keeps it moving up along the east coast and the other slows or stalls over eastern gulf Tampa area
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Yeh, the RGEM is east of 18z and shows a much more ominous track right into Tampa area while it's global bro skirts slightly west....

RGEM puts 36+ inches in Tampa.... so GFS is not alone
 
brendan123 said:
The flooding has already started in Miami. This was my college campus this afternoon after a 2 hour downpour; water was thigh deep on most roads around campus. Water was shooting through manhole covers throughout low lying areas as the sewers backed up. Wasn’t too out of the ordinary as these are occasional occurrences during thunderstorms, but will get worse over the next day as rain becomes more consistent and heavy. Will also be concerning if surge starts to compound the flooding. Predictions are only for one to two feet of saltwater inundation max here, but that could be enough to put the drainage system over the top during the most extreme downpours. Fortunately, Miami should definitely avoid the worst of the storm. However, if the surge and rainfall in Tampa become as bad as some predictions, they have a historic situation on their hands.View attachment 122225
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I've had 4 inches of rain today in my gauge, and 2 inches within the last 3 hours. We might receive 8-12" totals, which is mind-boggling given our distance from the COC.
 
GFS parks rain for about 72 hours here but somehow is spitting out 3-4” totals. They’ve got to do something about these feedback issues. It makes the model partially useless if you can’t even get accurate totals or surface reflectivity
 
Shawn said:
Yeh, the RGEM is east of 18z and shows a much more ominous track right into Tampa area while it's global bro skirts slightly west....

RGEM puts 36+ inches in Tampa.... so GFS is not alone
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I used to completely dismiss those insane amounts off hand thinking there’s no way they could verify, but after seeing them be right in Houston with Harvey and Wilmington with Florence, we know absolutely they can verify
 
Chazwin said:
I used to completely dismiss those insane amounts off hand thinking there’s no way they could verify, but after seeing them be right in Houston with Harvey and Wilmington with Florence, we know absolutely they can verify
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I am ashamed to admit that I did not watch/study Harvey very much. Did it have weak steering/got stuck too?
 
What I’m nervous about is most models have a period of intensification tomorrow past Cuba so aside from what’s happening tonight with the strength this thing will have a period of time to do something else once it’s past Cuba.
 
Shawn said:
I am ashamed to admit that I did not watch/study Harvey very much. Did it have weak steering/got stuck too?
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Yes… it stalled in a position right after landfall that just pumped a firehose right into Houston.
 
On average a tropical cyclone drops around 6-12” in a 12-24 hour period generally so to have one sit there for 36 hours and nearly put 4 feet of rain down over one area is absolutely astonishing
 
The 19 UTC NBM has an average below 9 inches for Tampa.. Lets hope that's what verifies, idk.. will have to see what it says after these 00z
 
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