If it ends up crossing into the Atlantic and then hooking into the SC coast… kudos to the Euro/EPS for picking up on that possibility back on Friday… even before there was a TD classified.
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
weather bubba
Member
One of their local news stations has sustained winds of 40 to 50 miles per hour with gusts approaching 60 and about six inches of rain for that area. Those are definitely tropical storm conditions.
severestorm
Member
Shear from the cold front is going to be a problem for Ian as it exits Cuba. The clearing eye could be caused by down sloping off of Cuba's mountains. OHC also decreases from Cuba to landfall. Hopefully this is a CAT 1 or 2 when it makes landfall.
Shear:
OHC:
Shear:
OHC:
Nerman
Member
A buddy of mine that works for IBM/WC has access to tools and in-house models that I don't and he just said they're showing it bombing out at 911. I think it's going to be too big and hit too far south to weaken to a 1 or 2 by landfall.
boobear
Member
I was in Tampa in 85 when Helena sat off the coast for 48 hours. Never made landfall there , but the damage that the storm surge did was unreal. It just kept pushing the water in Tampa Bay. A friend had just bought a condo in St. Pete and all that was left was the fire wall. My husband was a resident at Tampa General. It is on an island. They evacuated all that could be moved, but some were too fragile to move. Is this going to hit when the cycle is a " tidal day " when the tides are higher than normal ? Really scary for Tampa Bay.
Thank you. Being at Disney, I'm not watching news....just reading stuff here while standing in long lines in oppressive humidity lol
I wonder if and how much the 11 AM advisory moves landfall south given the eastward (wobble?) north of Cuba?
Old map showing mostly anticyclone as shear. Shear won’t be a problem until it already reaches Tampa level. Dry air might but the extent will be based on storm structure.
Nerman
Member
Eye looking much better
Henry2326
Member
12z Nam continues to approach SC as cats
Looked like it was headed on that run anywhere from georgetown to wilmington
If it follows what the UK is doing, it would bend back west just a little more and go in just north of Charleston
Henry2326
Member
11 am NHC discussion
The strength of this trough, the associated
southwesterly flow, and the vertical depth of Ian appear to be the
keys to the forecast. There has been a notable trend toward the
hurricane remaining more intact up through landfall, meaning Ian is
likely to turn to the northeast and not move as slowly as previously
anticipated. However, it should be emphasized that this track
remains very uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. The latest
forecast is adjusted to the southeast for this advisory, showing
landfall 6-12 hours faster than before, and we will have to see if
the southern trend continues in the afternoon guidance. The rest of
the forecast after landfall has been adjusted to the northeast as
well, though it is still slower than the consensus guidance at
longer range.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 83.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 82.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 82.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0000Z 28.5N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 33.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
The strength of this trough, the associated
southwesterly flow, and the vertical depth of Ian appear to be the
keys to the forecast. There has been a notable trend toward the
hurricane remaining more intact up through landfall, meaning Ian is
likely to turn to the northeast and not move as slowly as previously
anticipated. However, it should be emphasized that this track
remains very uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. The latest
forecast is adjusted to the southeast for this advisory, showing
landfall 6-12 hours faster than before, and we will have to see if
the southern trend continues in the afternoon guidance. The rest of
the forecast after landfall has been adjusted to the northeast as
well, though it is still slower than the consensus guidance at
longer range.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 83.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 82.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 82.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0000Z 28.5N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 33.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Henry2326
Member
Next move will be water.....notice now have tropical Storm warnings coast of GA and SC, and cone still includes over water.
smast16
Member
Correct. That map is showing the storm's outflow as shear, but it's not shear in the sense that it's sheer induced by the front.
Look at the watches up the EC now, NHC hinting east coast exit off Fl a good possibility now.