These post are better in banter thread unless you can provide reasoning, otherwise they just clog up the thread
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
SCWXGuy
Member
Lee County (Ft Myers area) has issued mandatory evacuation orders for zone A and part of zone B. That includes Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, Matlacha and Bonita Beach. A part of Zone B south of Veterans Parkway in Cape Coral is also under mandatory evacuation.
https://www.news-press.com/story/we...storm-cape-coral-fort-myers-beach/8120548001/
https://www.news-press.com/story/we...storm-cape-coral-fort-myers-beach/8120548001/
EMTime
Member
Could it hit cat 5 today? Seems very possible.
DadOfJax
Member
No, but potentially a 4.
6z WRF has folded. Landfall just north of Tampa as 110-115knts with HMON south of Tampa about the same.
Sure looks like it. Both recon passes show slow deepening even over land with extrapolated pressure readings of 947Mb and 946Mb respectively. I expect some weakening as the eye is currently traversing the hilly terrain right now, but the storm sure looks poised to just explode in the SE gulf today into tonight.
Not that we're surprised but this part of Cuba not effecting Ian much if at all, the eye had become a little ragged but looks good again and is just about back over water. Also may have wobbled NNE a tad but probably too early to discuss the wobbles lol
Possible. Probably unlikely, but I think it will have to happen in the next 12 hrs or so.
Stormsfury
Member
IAN is traversing a small area of hilly/small mountain strip currently. Elevation maybe as high as 1000 ft.
There would almost have to be zero eastward wobbles, jogs, movement for it to hit Tampa... I'm going to lean Cape Coral.
Not the most impressive eye atm. Let’s see if she can get her act back together between Cuba and the Florida coast.
smast16
Member
True, but that was just the upper level steering. There is low level steering at play as well.
Henry2326
Member
06z HWRF......988 pressure over Jax.
Trying to get back to water.
Trying to get back to water.
The latest fix is 953Mb. Still very impressed with the eye over land for several hours now. The eye is intact and is almost assured of emerging off the coast in the next 1-2 hours still at a powerful CAT3. Wow.
EMTime
Member
I've seen enough of these storms in the gulf to recognize when one has everything going for it to rapidly strengthen. This one has it.
They always seem to over perform on forecasted strength.
Ian is about to hit bath water with no shear.
They always seem to over perform on forecasted strength.
Ian is about to hit bath water with no shear.
iGRXY
Member
Exactly. This thing has mid to upper 80 degree waters and with it's NE movement the shear is going to help venting the storm. Very easily could see a 150 mph Cat 4 right off the coast of Florida.
iGRXY
Member
6Z pulled back west a touch once over land. 0z had the core emerging right on the coast and the atlantic before being tugged back west.
If this does emerge back over the Atl it will be a shadow of it's former self with little to no re-intensification. So even if that scenario played out, it would be a weak system for 2nd landfall and would have bigger implications for qpf in certain areas and maybe severe threats.