• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Ian

The official track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 21.3N 83.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND223342_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind (1).png
 
Last edited:
Icon is probably about 50 miles west of the 18Z run. Running parallel to the Florida coast at 39. Makes LF just south of Tampa at 51
 
Henry2326 said:
View attachment 122220

The official track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 21.3N 83.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
Click to expand...
That's the 8 PM graphic.
 
Henry2326 said:
View attachment 122220

The official track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 21.3N 83.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
Click to expand...
Still the 8pm graphic. still waiting on the 11pm graphic update.
 
Here's the 11 PM graphic.
223342_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Snowlover87 said:
wouldnt slightly faster mean a slight jump ? Why would there be a big jump, if its only slightly faster ?
Click to expand...
It’s sped up in the model to the point that the trough doesn’t leave it behind. Also the trough is somewhat deeper and sharper which is why you see it get pushed back NW into the SC once it crosses FL.
 
Icon is slower and SW through 57 but we will see if it continues a track of the 18z out to sea and a 2nd LF in SC or if it starts that turn to the N
 
Big change on the ICON is the high was back over the norther great lakes region at 18z but is over NY state at 90 hours so that slows it down and forces it right along the coast instead of giving it some breathing room.
 
2nd LF in Savannah as potentially a cat 1 again. Huge rainfall all over SC, NC, Georgia. This track would really increase the winds even more over our area.
 
Stormsfury said:
no longer concentric eyewalls. One consolidated circular closed 32 NM wide eye. (965mb)

F. CLOSED
G. C32
Click to expand...
You’re really going to see it start deepening now and with a more easterly track this thing may not weaken nearly as much on approach. A cat 4 right offshore and LF as a Cat 3 is a real possibility right now around Tampa.
 
There was a 101kt unflagged.. it's probably already or will be a major by 2 am. my guess 115-120mph and 958-960mb or so by morning
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top