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Tropical Hurricane Ian

JHS said:
That is a very big shift by the Euro and it is probably going to be right. Comes out near Daytona and I'm willing to bet that if the run kept going it never would make the north turn or would do so in time to just scrape the Outer Banks of NC. The other models will follow suit with their next run and this will probably not be coming back west.
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Your post are getting so ridiculous
 
Brick Tamland said:
It seems forecasting the track of hurricanes has become harder instead of easier, especially ones in the Gulf.
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brick i love you but i couldn't disagree more man. i think that there's an inflated feeling of uncertainty from both the variety of products, the reliance on ensembles and more 18z and 6z runs which increase the serialization of tracking these things. when i was in high school tracking irene i did not have tropical tidbits or any great resources like that; outside of official forecasts i had the gfs via the university of wyoming website, i had jeff masters wunderblog comment section and i had wxrisk on facebook, that was my diet. if i were in that position now i would have a vastly superior diet of weather consumption. there likely were greater forecasting battles, they just werent visible to us. as far as forecast quality i think it gets better every year; i think the NHC has been absolutely stellar in this storm in particular, that track had barely budged and the intensity forecast has held firm.
 
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