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Tropical Hurricane Ian

accu35 said:
Anyone notice some models take it back south?
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Not really, as @thunderwolf explained earlier probably a result of some models algorithms struggling with the lowest pressures and where to place the lp. Remnants may slide back east but nothing really showing it going south
 
metwannabe said:
Trends continue, almost to state line now

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Models have been really bad with Ian. This is as bad as seeing the change in snow storms inside 24 hours. I'm not surprised to see it, either. The way these hurricanes blow up quickly now and continue to get stronger all the way up to landfall is something we have seen the past few years, and I think the models just can't handle them as well anymore.
 
Been doing some thinking today, and while I’m not sure if it’s possible to have this happen and not disrupt the core of a major hurricane; I wonder if a little dry air in the upper levels of the atmosphere contributed to the rapidly strengthening of Ian. At least in my mind, it would explain the absolute wicked updrafts, extreme lightning and hail, and 60k foot echo tops in the eyewall if the dry air aloft formed a pseudo EML which in turn raised lapse rates as happens in severe weather episodes. Of course the near perfect position between trough providing ventilation and the anticyclone added to this as well. This may be mostly nonsense, as I’m tired.

All in all a few take a ways:

1. Models still have huge trouble nailing down the speed of troughs in the northern stream. Gonna be another miserable model watching winter I’m afraid.

2. While not great on track, the hurricane models have become extremely good on intensity forecasts close to landfall. Both HMON and HWRF had Ian rapidly strengthening to near Cat 5 status, before holding steady and/or slight weakening at landfall to 125-130knts. They also nailed the fact that the highest winds would be in the western half. The Euro also deserves a huge shout out in strength forecasting. Even though it was too high with surface pressure, it too showed the strengthening episode before landfall.

3. I do believe Ian will be upgraded to Cat 5 before weakening to Cat 4 at landfall.

4. Another hurricane where timing made a disaster. Had it ramped up in the Caribbean as was predicted, it would have probably hit at much lower intensity. This whole organization thing right before landfall is very interesting.

5. Maybe the only time I’ve ever had a hurricane landfall close to where I thought it would.
 
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SD said:
Probably not unless it starts going to town overnight and actually looks like a tropical system in the morning. I mean 3k gets it down to 969 and looks good on sim IRView attachment 122619
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It still has lots of time over the gulf stream so we will have to see what that does. If he was truly tropical i would think some strengthening was imminent but with him being so broad theres no way he tightens up in time to get to 969 but Ian has been doing his own thing for a while so who knows
 
metwannabe said:
Shifted slightly east or north at landfall again. Forecast to be 85 mph at landfall


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You up the winds at the landfall point you’re going to up the winds inland .. we might actually have a verifying wind event on our hands .. that wind field is massive
 
Yep definitely pulling llc towards convective blowup also still seems multiple vorts withing center. Last gasp at trying to get a little better organized and then probably resumes north movement
 
Looks like the east bias is continuing, sat loop looks like the center is right where the latest flareup on the north side is around 79 W....and the best guess estimate based on the center is still pretty NNE.....looks like Myrtle to Raleigh still a good bet IMO, "center" is huge as well so the western side could landfall at Pawley Island and the east side at ILM....gusting to near hurricane strength at the Edisto buoy 40 miles offshore from Charleston.....
 
Time : 085020 UTC
Lat : 30:46:05 N Lon : 79:05:56 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 981mb / 49kts

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.0 2.0



09LP.GIF




09L-2DWIND.GIF
 
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