Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Henry2326]

18z HWRF following GFS.....

 

[Henry2326]

18z HMON moves across Charleston. Continuing its trend.

 

[jeremyt]

18z HMON moves across Charleston. Continuing its trend.

View attachment 122193

Is the HMON the Far East outlier?

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[Henry2326]

Is the HMON the Far East outlier?

Uk, Icon, and Hmon all have 2nd LF at Charleston, as well as a couple in the spaghetti models.

UK

 

[KyloG]

18z Euro solidly east of 12z through 36. ?‍

 

[jeremyt]

Uk, Icon, and Hmon all have 2nd LF at Charleston, as well as a couple in the spaghetti models.

UK
View attachment 122194

View attachment 122195

Only time will tell!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Euro East and stronger! Landfall I believe is now south of Tampa

 

[jeremyt]

Euro East and stronger! Landfall I believe is now south of Tampa

Don’t pay to see the Euro, is the 48hr stall still on the table?

 

[KyloG]

Euro landfall south of Tampa

These off hours of Euro can get weird so…grain of salt

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Finally starting to close off .. Cuba friction should help get this thing wound up tonight. Trends of a further East track and further south landfall track is very worrisome. This will allow less time for the storm to weaken. Not good.

 

[Brick Tamland]

It seems forecasting the track of hurricanes has become harder instead of easier, especially ones in the Gulf.

 

[Tornadocane]

Euro East and stronger! Landfall I believe is now south of Tampa

SE Florida needs to be put under Tropical Storm Watches immediately, and Hurricane Watches should be extended down the SW Coast down to the Naples area (Collier County).

 

[TerryInTucker]

SE Florida needs to be put under Tropical Storm Watches immediately, and Hurricane Watches should be extended down the SW Coast down to the Naples area (Collier County).

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

It seems forecasting the track of hurricanes has become harder instead of easier, especially ones in the Gulf.

To be honest not really. Our track forecasts have improved drastically. Only reason this one is so tough is the lack of real strong driving steering flow. These are known to have wild shifts because models are trying to see what if anything is driving these storms during these patterns.

 

[Brick Tamland]

To be honest not really. Our track forecasts have improved drastically. Only reason this one is so tough is the lack of real strong driving steering flow. These are known to have wild shifts because models are trying to see what if anything is driving these storms during these patterns.

I don't know, seems it's been tough a lot the last decade or so with the ones in the Gulf to pinpoint the track.

 

[jeremyt]

I don't know, seems it's been tough a lot the last decade or so with the ones in the Gulf to pinpoint the track.

Any of them to be honest! How many times did the track change for Florence?

 

[Henry2326]

00z

 

[JHS]

That is a very big shift by the Euro and it is probably going to be right. Comes out near Daytona and I'm willing to bet that if the run kept going it never would make the north turn or would do so in time to just scrape the Outer Banks of NC. The other models will follow suit with their next run and this will probably not be coming back west.

 

[Ethan80963]