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Tropical Hurricane Ian

I still can't figure out why some of these models go across FL and off the ATL coast.. but its enough of a signal.....
It's been an on and off again signal for the entire week. We occasionally get a wonky run to the east and there's always been the eastward camps in the ensembles. Looking at the 5pm track a 100 mile east adjustment puts it back in the Atlantic so we keep watching I guess
 
Not buying the icon but interesting to say the least

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Oddly enough the Euro actually had this exact track early on, I don't see it happening either but the fact it won't go completely away is interesting
 
Watch as we get closer and the WAR starts flexing and showing itself like it always does in the short range. That’ll all but put a nail in a reemergence in the Atlantic idea.
You can already see the smallest sign of that on the 18z GFS… the WAR flexing at the last minute is as certain as death and taxes
 
Oddly enough the Euro actually had this exact track early on, I don't see it happening either but the fact it won't go completely away is interesting
The gfs is heading that way before the big blocking high races in and shuts of the NE turn and turns it more NNW again just off the west coast of Florida.
 
You can already see the smallest sign of that on the 18z GFS… the WAR flexing at the last minute is as certain as death and taxes
Yes, but stronger WAR would most likely mean stronger steering currents and a stronger hurricane would be apt to be steered NE around the stronger 500mb ridge.

Not saying the Icon is correct but food for thought.
 
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