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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Bannerdude said:
View along Estero Boulevard in Fort Myers from the Bay Inn at Lani Kai to the pool of what was formerly Silver Sands Resort. Colorful building still standing is The Whale. Just sand and debris where a gas station, multiple shops, restaurants, and residences should be

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As devastating as this is, I just want to point out that this is Ft. Myers Beach, which is a barrier island. Parts of Ft. Myers are in very bad shape too, but most of the mainland does not look quite as bad as this footage.
 
BullCityWx said:
24 hours ago at hour 54, the GFS had Ian about 40-50 miles offshore of St Augustine.

24 hours later, at hour 30, the GFS has Ian at Myrtle Beach.

Just your every day 300 mile north trend.
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It's getting prepared for winter.
 
Was already in downtown Charleston in a fortress of a hotel and figured it was a golden opportunity to be able to chase this one by staying put. But pretty much every model is now taking this farther up the coast it seems (pending Euro obviously).
 
Bannerdude said:
View along Estero Boulevard in Fort Myers from the Bay Inn at Lani Kai to the pool of what was formerly Silver Sands Resort. Colorful building still standing is The Whale. Just sand and debris where a gas station, multiple shops, restaurants, and residences should be

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I'm impressed by how well the structures built to modest hurricane codes survived the onslaught. There is one house where the shingle roof looks brand new! Most, if not all of this damage, appears to be caused by the debris from "grandfathered" structures. The barrier islands all over the U.S. really need to step up and condemn and destroy all structures not up to basic hurricane codes.

There wouldn't be this amount of destruction if a) we didn't build shoddy structures on the coast, and b) we didn't build on a beach!!!
 
blueheronNC said:
Was already in downtown Charleston in a fortress of a hotel and figured it was a golden opportunity to be able to chase this one by staying put. But pretty much every model is now taking this farther up the coast it seems (pending Euro obviously).
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My guess is they have to close all the bridges tomorrow so if you stay on the peninsula, you're going to be stuck there
 

Tight pressure gradient from the High and Ian​

Current Conditions​

KATL 15:52 GMT
64° F Mostly Clear
Dew Point:41° F
Humidity:38%
Pressure:1021 mb
Wind:NE 25 G 39 mph
Visibility:10 miles
 
KyloG said:
GFS/GEM/UK 12z runs....better agreement

View attachment 122555
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Onshore flow is starting to be a concern for SE NC beaches like Sunset, Ocean Isle, Holden, Oak. All the places that were effected by Isaias. Storm is tucked in just south and the contour of the coast perfectly lines up with winds on the NE side of Ian
 
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Just watched Levi’s video. He said he could see landfall as far north as MB for now. Crazy how far south and east this storm has remained on the NHC track. Wonder what caused this issue with the models, trough, incoming cold front? Lots of variables I know and I’m not versed enough to attempt to guess.
 
jeremyt said:
Just watched Levi’s video. He said he could see landfall as far north as MB for now. Crazy how far south and east this storm has remained on the NHC track. Wonder what caused this issue with the models, trough, incoming cold front? Lots of variables I know and I’m not versed enough to attempt to guess.
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Ian keeps moving east, models keep adjusting the landfall a little further north. I think we could have a low end cat 2 between Charleston and Myrtle Beach.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Ian keeps moving east, models keep adjusting the landfall a little further north. I think we could have a low end cat 2 between Charleston and Myrtle Beach.
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Maybe cat 1. Cold front from the north and dry air on the south should impede rapid re-development. Won’t argue with you on location.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Ian keeps moving east, models keep adjusting the landfall a little further north. I think we could have a low end cat 2 between Charleston and Myrtle Beach.
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Ian is really sheared right now, you can see on radar LLC is decoupled from mid level. Mesoscale models show a lopsided storm with no south side. I’m not saying it won’t be impactful but I really doubt this anywhere past low end 1, if that. Pressure decreases will be aided by some of this synoptic stuff slinging it back into the coast
 
12Z Euro pretty much the same as 06Z run. Perhaps a slightly lower pressure at 975mb right off the coast with a landfall between Edisto Beach and Charleston12Zecmwf.png
 
GEFS, more east means stronger and further up the coast... eps might be interesting but just north of Charleston seems to be a good bet

AL09_2022092912_GEFS_0-120h_large.png
 
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