Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Cary_Snow95]

Euro is east compared to 06z. Gfs and euro are very close together here

 

[Metwannabe]

2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 26
Location: 19.7°N 83.0°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 976 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

 

[SD]

This euro run is about worst case for Tampa

 

[KyloG]

Comparing UK to Euro day 3....ar much weaker on UK which probably isn't correct. EPS is probably way to go so we will see...that's my 2 cents

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This euro run is about worst case for Tampa

Yep slides slowly by just pushing everything right up into the bay. Never makes landfall but doesn’t really matter

 

[SD]

Started an inland impact thread since there is likely to be a widespread area of 3-5+ inch rain along with a low end tornado threat, and some gusty gradient winds

Tropical - Ian Ianland Thread

Long duration south to southeast flow, heavy rain, gradient wind, tornadoes will all spread well inland from the CoC with Ian discuss them here

southernwx.com

 

[Henry2326]

Getting that look..


.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Getting that look..


View attachment 122151.

Maybe this time that look will actually happen.

 

[Avalanche]

How will the topography on the western side of Cuba affect Ian?

 

[Henry2326]

Goodness....getting some alignment.
Hoping folks are following evacuation orders.

 

[BullCityWx]

How will the topography on the western side of Cuba affect Ian?

Western Cuba is pretty flat so it wont hurt it much.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Where does it cross Cuba.

 

[KyloG]

Euro shows multi-day rain of 3-5" across the SE...Clemson/NCState would be interesting.

 

[Zander98al]

So when does this storm get the usual storm of the century/decade or whatever by media? Or has it already? Already see it. Historic Tampa Bay hurricane. storm surge of the century ?

 

[smast16]

Just a few ?s I have:

Why do the icon and gfs drop sfc pressure west of FL? Is that why they turn E?
What's the deal with the convective explosion north of the Bahamas on the gfs/icon is that why they turn E?
Are the answers to the questions above why the cmc stays due north?
Why does the uk beat the WAR back so much the system gets into the Atlantic before resuming a northward motion?
How does the upper level system north of the islands racing west affect the track if at all?

Venting as it nears the trough?

 

[$alt]

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[deltadog03]

2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 26
Location: 19.7°N 83.0°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 976 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

Moving at a good clip

 

[deltadog03]

Where does it cross Cuba.
View attachment 122153View attachment 122154

Ty for posting this. Even on NNW movement it might be on eastern end of guidance over Cuba.

 

[Nerman]

The plumes now firing and rotating are impressive

 

[Tarheel1]

Getting that look..


View attachment 122151.

Once it gets that look with bands and big dry slots in between bands, it never seems to fill in or congeal. We will see. And there will likely be a big band of precip that makes it into the Carolinas, hundreds of miles away from the center