Tropical Hurricane Ian

[JHS]

The dry slot is back. A big cut in rainfall for many unless this thing turns back east.

 

[KyloG]

FWIW the 12z UK does get it out in the atlantic from the coarse maps I see

 

[Metwannabe]

This going to be a long duration event for a lot of people (obviously none worse than in and around Tampa) but it's gon rain for a while in many areas.

 

[Metwannabe]

And CMC further west, closer to Tallahassee

 

[Metwannabe]

Solid widespread 3-5 with pockets of 6+ on the GFS

 

[iGRXY]

Yeah any model run that shows less than 3-4" is undervaluing QPF. Moisture from the Hurricane in the gulf, a moisture fetch from the atlantic riding a CAD dome will enhance rates and coverage as well as lift from the Southern and eastern facing slopes scream half a foot for a lot of people. That just seems like the most for sure thing right now as east and west LF tracks still bring the core over the areas inland.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The dry slot is back. A big cut in rainfall for many unless this thing turns back east.

12z gfs ups totals in our area.. plenty of rain

 

[deltadog03]

Past 3 runs of the GFS 0z/12z only ?

View attachment 122138

Lmao!! That’s not far away from slingshotting Ian across the state and into the Carolinas.

 

[Taylor C]

Water will pile up substantially in Tampa’s bay if that southern eyewall comes around like some model depictions have suggested. Also, rainfall totals of 40+ inches showing on the maps. Florida better hope that stays offshore.

 

[SASQUATCH]

12Z GFS Ops is East of it's own ensemble, FWIW

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah any model run that shows less than 3-4" is undervaluing QPF. Moisture from the Hurricane in the gulf, a moisture fetch from the atlantic riding a CAD dome will enhance rates and coverage as well as lift from the Southern and eastern facing slopes scream half a foot for a lot of people. That just seems like the most for sure thing right now as east and west LF tracks still bring the core over the areas inland.

Yeah…and it doesn’t seem to matter where the storms comes in…near Tampa or further north at the Big Bend. Also I would be at all suprised to start see a larger shield of rain spread further north out ahead of the storm as we get closer leading to an earlier onset rain for the Carolinas. This would probably be something that the short range models pick up on

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I think the track now is important for the coastal regions of Florida .. I believe our impacts here in NC is pretty much set in stone. Lots of rain some gusty winds.. slight tornado threat especially along boundary.

 

[iGRXY]

12Z GFS Ops is East of it's own ensemble, FWIW

GFS is way east of its own ensembles

 

[SD]

Gefs have really 3 distinct camps, one across FL and into the Atlantic, one either side of the west coast of FL, one still out in the gulf

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

NAM was way west too on the 12Z run compared to the 06Z run.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Gefs have really 3 distinct camps, one across FL and into the Atlantic, one either side of the west coast of FL, one still out in the gulfView attachment 122143

Heavy on the gulf camp it looks like.

 

[Metwannabe]

Ukie across Fl and back into Atlantic with 2nd LF in SC, wild stuff

 

[Metwannabe]

Lol

 

[JHS]

12z gfs ups totals in our area.. plenty of rain
View attachment 122142

Raleigh does very well but much of upstate SC gets under 2 inches out of it on the GFS

 

[SD]

NAM was way west too on the 12Z run compared to the 06Z run.

Strictly from a numbers perspective its about 60% west and 40% along east. The mean mslp gets skewed since the land interaction raises pressures and the ones far enough west are still in the 960s. Either way it's a delicate track here in that 48-96 hour window where 50-75 miles makes a huge difference