Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Henry2326]

Also the globals have sucked with Ian. The center is somewhere between Orlando and Melbourne just about to exit the coast and even on the 0z run tonight the GFS was saying it was gonna take another 18hrs . Theyve just not handled him well.

About 2 days ago, I stopped paying attention. They were so far behind. Interesting that ICON, NAM, and UK led so well.

Also, when the globals are behind, then the message to the people is even more behind. On Tuesday, someone in Charleston said "you have a ton of rain coming to you in Atlanta". I said " no, it's coming your way". They thought I was crazy. And the message to Atlanta has been loud and strong to prepare. So they will start ignoring the warnings.

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[Henry2326]

06z HWRF and HMON.
Earlier drop off FL. LF at Charleston.

HWRF 975
HMON. 983

 

[Chazwin]

About 2 days ago, I stopped paying attention. They were so far behind. Interesting that ICON, NAM, and UK led so well.

Also, when the globals are behind, then the message to the people is even more behind. On Tuesday, someone in Charleston said "you have a ton of rain coming to you in Atlanta". I said " no, it's coming your way". They thought I was crazy. And the message to Atlanta has been loud and strong to prepare. So they will start ignoring the warnings.

Yeah… obviously this storm is emerging much earlier out into the Atlantic than what the GFS/EURO was showing. It is interesting that the UK/NAM combo that was the furthest north with the landfall has shifted back south closer to rest of guidance. It does appear that things are zeroing in on somewhere close to Charleston for the next landfall tomorrow. Now we need to see just how much strengthening can occur. Also, does anyone have the tide schedules for coastal areas the next couple days?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Models converging to Charleston to CLT track with the heaviest rains. RAH mentioned dry slot for places on east side.

View attachment 122504

3-6 inches in the dry slot? I’ll take it.

 

[jaw719]

Yeah… obviously this storm is emerging much earlier out into the Atlantic than what the GFS/EURO was showing. It is interesting that the UK/NAM combo that was the furthest north with the landfall has shifted back south closer to rest of guidance. It does appear that things are zeroing in on somewhere close to Charleston for the next landfall tomorrow. Now we need to see just how much strengthening can occur. Also, does anyone have the tide schedules for coastal areas the next couple days?

This is Charleston harbor’s tide tomorrow

 

[FortMillSCWx]

Reports of hundreds dead in Lee County, Fl....incredibly sad if true.

 

[Bannerdude]

Reports of hundreds dead in Lee County, Fl....incredibly sad if true.

Source to share?

Edit: Nevermind, found it. Lee County Sheriff on GMA this morning

 

[lexxnchloe]

Reports of hundreds dead in Lee County, Fl....incredibly sad if true.

Often early reports can be wrong. I hope the death toll is much lower.

 

[Downeastnc]

 

[BHS1975]

[ MEDIA=twitter]1575451907929292801[/MEDIA]

If so that would shatter records except for the Galveston cane.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[RBR71]

Interesting

 

[BullCityWx]

Interesting

I think Kiawah is a really good call. It's been ground zero for nearly 36 hours.

 

[SD]

Anyone got the 6z euro for us poor folks

 

[Rain Cold]

Anyone got the 6z euro for us poor folks

0z was pretty ugly in terms of overall precip here. That dry punch is going to shut off the rain fairly rapidly here, if the system comes in near CHS and tracks toward the upstate. We probably end up between 1-3".

 

[iGRXY]

Those asking for the euro. Think the totals outside of the coast are on the light side and could see an additional 1-2” on this totals across most places

 

[RBR71]

Anyone got the 6z euro for us poor folks

The poor man's version

 

[mrdaddyman]

Anyone got the 6z euro for us poor folks

Still continuing with the NE trend.

 

[Downeastnc]

When is recon suppose to get back in Ian, would give us a better idea of what is left and how organized he is....

 

[Stump]

I hope this guy is wrong of course, but if he is wrong, what a mistake to make to declare that on national TV.

 

[SD]

0z was pretty ugly in terms of overall precip here. That dry punch is going to shut off the rain fairly rapidly here, if the system comes in near CHS and tracks toward the upstate. We probably end up between 1-3".

I'm the biggest euro truther out there but boy does it stink low on qpf a lot

 

[RBR71]

I think Kiawah is a really good call. It's been ground zero for nearly 36 hours.

Yep, also 2nd pic and his comments about some possible strengthening thanks to the right entrance region of a jet streak. Lot of dynamics at play

 

[RBR71]

I know it's very disorganized this morning and difficult to pinpoint the center but the back edge to the cloud deck is halfway across Fl. This thing going to be over water before noon easily

 

[KyloG]

Can see the heaviest rain has shifted over CHS to FLO to GSO now on Euro....past 4 runs

 

[KyloG]

3-6 inches in the dry slot? I’ll take it.

You must not have seen the 6z Euro...precip min in Wake. You know how it works around here.

 

[SD]

I know it's very disorganized this morning and difficult to pinpoint the center but the back edge to the cloud deck is halfway across Fl. This thing going to be over water before noon easily

Looks like the center is here and should be offshore soon. It's going to take a while though for all the kings horses and men to put humpty dumpty together

 

[RBR71]

Looks like the center is here and should be offshore soon. It's going to take a while though for all the kings horses and men to put humpty dumpty together

I'm having a difficult time finding any model that had it that far south along the Fl east coast

 

[NWTENN]

Lee County FL death toll in the "hundreds?" I know it's possible, but I sure hope that's one of those bad early reports we always hear. Absolutely devastating.

 

[Downeastnc]

Looks like the center is here and should be offshore soon. It's going to take a while though for all the kings horses and men to put humpty dumpty together

Ian will need to fire some storms on the center and really take advantage of that warm water.....still right now there is no organized core at all really, the chances he is able to put it back together seems rather low.....if he does continue his trend of being right of track however he will have more time over the gulf stream and water in general if he somehow ended up closer to the SC/NC border....even then he would only have roughly 24-30 hrs....

 

[BullCityWx]

Ian will need to fire some storms on the center and really take advantage of that warm water.....still right now there is no organized core at all really, the chances he is able to put it back together seems rather low.....if he does continue his trend of being right of track however he will have more time over the gulf stream and water in general if he somehow ended up closer to the SC/NC border....even then he would only have roughly 24-30 hrs....

We've seen the gulf stream do some wild things before to storms though. Hugo was a Category 2 before it passed over.

 

[DadOfJax]

Florida peninsula really crushed the structure of Ian. I highly doubt we see much strengthening before any potential 2nd landfall. Enjoy the wind and rain along the east coast....may be a while before there is any more.

 

[RBR71]

Looks like it's just east of Port St. John and almost over water (crude gif I know)

 

[RBR71]

We've seen the gulf stream do some wild things before to storms though. Hugo was a Category 2 before it passed over.

yep but it has to get organized first, if it does then the gulf stream might do it's thing but if it doesn't, gulf stream could be boiling wouldn't matter

 

[Downeastnc]

We've seen the gulf stream do some wild things before to storms though. Hugo was a Category 2 before it passed over.

Well sure but Hugo had a intact core....Ian has lost that core. On the vis loop the overall LLC looks ok, need to see Ian fire storms on the LLC and start rebuilding a eye.....crazy things can happen though so we just got to wait him out and see what he does,

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I'm the biggest euro truther out there but boy does it stink low on qpf a lot

I like short range models so far.. majority of models say 4-6 inches for our area and I expect globals to maybe lose some value in the qpf department since they aren’t as hi-res

 

[Avalanche]

I like short range models so far.. majority of models say 4-6 inches for our area and I expect globals to maybe lose some value in the qpf department since they aren’t as hi-res

Do you not think those totals are garbage?

 

[BullCityWx]

This thing is really speeding up on the modelling. Looks like most of the triangle should be clear by 10PM tomorrow night.

 

[Chazwin]

Well sure but Hugo had a intact core....Ian has lost that core. On the vis loop the overall LLC looks ok, need to see Ian fire storms on the LLC and start rebuilding a eye.....crazy things can happen though so we just got to wait him out and see what he does,

This is true… now I will point out that Bonnie in 1998 spent 24 hours on land in eastern NC emerging back over open water and then quickly regained hurricane strength within just a few hours… the redeveloped northern eye wall caused significant damage in Virginia Beach. I certainly think any model trying to build this back up to a strong cat 2 is overdoing it, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this build back up to a 80-85mph cat 1 in the next 24 hours

 

[thunderwolf]

Models are continuing to tick eastward

 

[LickWx]

Models are continuing to tick eastward

What’s with the one member curving all the way back out into the Atlantic ?