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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Charleston to ILM as usual is the sweet spot, a lot of questions around what kind of storm will Ian be...sloppy half a cane or can he actually rebuild a solid core......there will be a building strong high over NE and there could be a pretty big wind field on the N side...
 
Downeastnc said:
Charleston to ILM as usual is the sweet spot, a lot of questions around what kind of storm will Ian be...sloppy half a cane or can he actually rebuild a solid core......there will be a building strong high over NE and there could be a pretty big wind field on the N side...
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That’s why I’m more concerned than I usually am about the wind field with a decaying storm. This is a highly unusual setup.
 
FV3 still south strengthening.... Does the HRRR use the NAM code or something (vice versa)?
 
Yeah EPS 18z is not very far off from it's 12z. Ugh.
 
I want to see another bump north on the 00z Euro or other guidance besides the mesoscale models before I buy a LF north of Charleston.
The 00z NAM had a landfall close to 100 miles SW of the 18z run. I bet the NAM starts to trend SW toward other guidance.
 
BullCityWx said:
That’s why I’m more concerned than I usually am about the wind field with a decaying storm. This is a highly unusual setup.
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Isn’t this a similar set up to Micheal, with the mixing down of winds? Not sure the terminology, but the back side winds were extremely fierce..
 
NAM was a rather large shift to the SW. I still think the 2nd LF will be south of Charleston maybe between HHI and Charleston.
 
I mean at 18Z the gfs still had Ian just over the space coast at 30 hours. Looking at satellite he is still moving so unless he stalls he will clear the coast way before the gfs even hinted at it. If its that wrong in the short term how good of a handle does it have on this situation?
 
Ian wasting no time crossing Florida it is amazing to me how bad of a handle the globals have on this system.....most do not have him going offshore till 6 pm tomorrow and do so well north of where he will actually do so.
 
My only pause on the speed he looks to be crossing Florida is if we are seeing shear displace the remnants of his CDO while the true LLC lags behind and is still over central florida. If he truly is off the east coast of Florida in the next 8-12 hours then the globals poor performance will be one for the books!!
 
Going on recent observations Sebring is reporting a NW wind and the county to its east is reporting S winds so the center is just NE of Sebring
 
KyloG said:
2 camps…one GA/SC border other further N. It’s a coin flip.

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I think the key in this is where is the storm at in 24 hours. It looks like the south eastern landfalls near Hilton head and southern half of SC keep it still over land in 24 hours while the further north solutions have it already past Florida over water in 24 hours (from the 18z time stamp obviously)
 
00Z GFS has two camps, one a sharper left and then a group more like the HRRR/NAM's....and since it cannot be stated enough a 75 miles shift either way is the difference between Hilton Head and ILM.....

gefs_2022-09-29-00Z_072_38.686_274.648_24.088_289.893_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
 
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