Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Cary_Snow95]

I just realized the ICON wasn't exactly an outlier, the Ukie came inland south of Tampa, basically ran up the peninsula, exited briefly off the NE part of Fl and 2nd LF up the coast as very weak system but tons of rain. Curious to see if it shifts back west with it's 12z run. It and the Euro have diverged a little bit.

Yep just saw that. And it’s still raining in these frames so that’s interesting

 

[smast16]

It was little more than breezy, it destroyed my neighborhood

Don't get all fussy, it wasn't Zeta.

It was Marco.

 

[Henry2326]

06z HMON - LF in Tampa, crosses FL, and LF in SC.

So now we have UK, Icon, and HMON with this crossing FL thing.

 

[smast16]

If this verified! Any guess on the implications for Ft Myers? I have a YOUNG daughter working/living in the historic district / riverwalk area. Sorry if this is banter! Worried mom

I used to live in Ft. Myers. I get it, but the best advice is to listen to her local NWS office in Tampa. They will give you the best information to make informed decisions. I can't make those calls for you.

https://www.weather.gov/tbw/

 

[accu35]

Don't get all fussy, it wasn't Zeta.

It was Marco.

That’s fine, but it was mentioned that it was Zeta. No worries

 

[$alt]

To my eyes, it appears that some Upper to Mid-Level Sheer is inserting dry air into the system, because Ian is sitting on the N and NW side of the Upper Level Anticyclone. Thus, dry air is circling into the system. I Imagine this is the reason Ian isn't deepening.

Coming up and around the main cayman island area too. In theory, should filter out by tonight, but we shall see

 

[Tornadocane]

my guess is front orientation- the northeasterlies from the front are going to influence track. icon is faster (so less time expose to northeasterlies) and nam has the front orientation a little more n-s (so the surface winds have less of an easterly component)

I agree with your point. I think the orientation and strength of shortwave troughs and ridges will have effects that the models might have trouble nailing down. I think that's the difference between the ICON and GFS depictions. It's noticeable on the 200Mb charts (Icon has limited maps).

 

[Tornadocane]

Coming up and around the main cayman island area too. In theory, should filter out by tonight, but we shall see

Sure. In theory. I don't think it will all clear out given the strengthening vorticity signatures over the Yucatan and Central Gulf causing subsidence on the SSW to NNW Peripheries of Ian's peripheries. It certainly seems like the Outflow boundary has been disturbed.

It will strengthen, but RI? I feel like everyone has said it would RI way before this point in time. Even the Weather Channel Hurricane Expert has walked back a bit.

 

[KyloG]

Interesting trends on the past 3 runs of the 6/18z EPS

 

[deltadog03]

So let’s see if we have this correct, lol. (BTW. I want y’all to get your rain in the SE, I’m good at the moment here in FL) as the trof dips down and rotates thru
Faster into the GOM=eastbiund
Slower into the GOM =westbound

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

11 am......wonder what they are looking at. I'm baffled.

The track guidance has come into better
agreement during the first 72 h of the forecast period, and only a
minor eastward adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast in line with the multi-model consensus aids.

 

[Brent]

NHC is more east than they ever have been lol. Let's not forget though they have models we don't see

 

[Bannerdude]

 

[DadOfJax]

View attachment 122130

NHC now on the eastern side of EPS guidance....watch for them to adjust to the west at some point today, especially if the GFS comes in west as well.

 

[Henry2326]

NHC now on the eastern side of EPS guidance....watch for them to adjust to the west at some point today, especially if the GFS comes in west as well.

That's not how they roll. They are very slow to make major adjustments especially to the GFS or Euro.

 

[Tornadocane]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 261457
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this morning. Deep
convection has increased within the inner core during the past
several hours, with an expanding central dense overcast noted in
recent satellite imagery. The inner core structure continues to take
shape in radar data, although the eyewall still has a banded
appearance and remains open on the west side. Dropsonde data from
the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
minimum pressure has gradually fallen to about 980 mb, and the
initial intensity is raised slightly to 70 kt for this advisory.

 

[DadOfJax]

View attachment 122131

On its way to possibly still shooting the gap, or just barely touching the western tip of Cuba, if that is extrapolated out.

 

[Brent]

That's not how they roll. They are very slow to make major adjustments especially to the GFS or Euro.

And like I said above... They have other models we don't see. There's clearly more eastern models than west

 

[weather bubba]

06z HMON - LF in Tampa, crosses FL, and LF in SC.

So now we have UK, Icon, and HMON with this crossing FL thing.


View attachment 122127

I'm still wondering if this might happen. I know UK, ICON and HMON aren't the most relied on models for most forecasters but stranger things have happened before.