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Tropical Hurricane Ian

ForsythSnow said:
He's crossing the state pretty fast and is only down to 125, have to question if this will be a hurricane on the other side now because I'm starting to feel it will.
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That's what I was saying earlier. If it moves across fast enough it could be out in the Atlantic as a hurricane still.
 
Shawn said:
Not far off from CHS, still. Nothing like the far northern outliers
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LF was in Hilton Head again. There’s a battle between the NAM/UKIE and pretty much everyone else. Yes you could include the long range HRRR but let’s be for real. That model is WAYYYYY outside it’s useful range. Will be interesting to see the 0Z runs
 
iGRXY said:
LF was in Hilton Head again. There’s a battle between the NAM/UKIE and pretty much everyone else. Yes you could include the long range HRRR but let’s be for real. That model is WAYYYYY outside it’s useful range. Will be interesting to see the 0Z runs
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It moved 1 county east over our area though. The center goes up highway 321 now, instead of up through the Union and Gaffney area. Still a big rain and wind event for many of us though.
 
JHS said:
It moved 1 county east over our area though. The center goes up highway 321 now, instead of up through the Union and Gaffney area. Still a big rain and wind event for many of us though.
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If it LF anywhere from South Georgia to Georgetown we will get a lot of rain and I still think the coverage will be more than what models are showing. There’s a ton a jet dynamics, an extremely tight gradient over a CAD dome, and a stalled front over the region. Only way we get skunked is if the UKIE happens. Which I still stand that the stalled front and jet dynamics is clearly what pulls this to the NW and that 9/10 times you’re going to have a stronger than modeled WAR that just isn’t going to allow these Far East solutions that gets this thing so far north before turning NW.
 
It's about 140 miles across FL on current track, it's traveled roughly 60 miles inland, approximately 80-90 more to go. If it doesn't slow down it will be sniffing salt water around daybreak... we shall see. I mean just 48 hrs ago it was Panhandle to Big bend region, then Tampa and finally way south of there. Also forecast to basically stall at LF. It's followed none of what it was suppose to do, nothing is off the table at this point. And tbh kinda foolish to say otherwise
 
Henry2326 said:
Take the TVCN/X (gray lines) and move ahead of it by a click.
That's where it's been ending up consistently.
On this one would be just south of Charleston, which would not be good.
But we have about 48 hours of more clicks to get through.

And to further test the theory, this is the model from Sept 26.
Compare it to where we ended up.
A click ahead of the gray lines.

Not very scientific, but it keeps happening over and over.

View attachment 122464

View attachment 122469
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There is some truth to this. I’ve been watching that particular plot since you mentioned it the other night
 
metwannabe said:
It's about 140 miles across FL on current track, it's traveled roughly 60 miles inland, approximately 80-90 more to go. If it doesn't slow down it will be sniffing salt water around daybreak... we shall see. I mean just 48 hrs ago it was Panhandle to Big bend region, then Tampa and finally way south of there. Also forecast to basically stall at LF. It's followed none of what it was suppose to do, nothing is off the table at this point. And tbh kinda foolish to say otherwise
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Great points, and exactly what I was worried about.
 
I think its been hit on pretty well here, but the faster the system moves over the next 12-24 hours increases its chances of feeling the effects of the trough which would pull the system further northward over the Atlantic. But at this point, I really don't know which model will have it right going forward.
 
thunderwolf said:
I think its been hit on pretty well here, but the faster the system moves over the next 12-24 hours increases its chances of feeling the effects of the trough which would pull the system further northward over the Atlantic. But at this point, I really don't know which model will have it right going forward.
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Looks like to me the trough is lagging behind most modeling but I could just be way off haha.. would think this allows more northward movement idk, thoughts?
goes16_wv-mid_us.gif
 
Yep, looking at current obs, like the WV @metwannabe linked, it is hard to believe that this system wouldn't just keep riding the boundary northeastward because it already appears to be embedded. But obviously forcing at the lower levels is not quite as strong and will continue to break down over the next day or so.
 
metwannabe said:
Looks like to me the trough is lagging behind most modeling but I could just be way off haha.. would think this allows more northward movement idk, thoughts?
View attachment 122476
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Crude MS paint of where the trough is on this gif

1664414820214.png

vs the mesoanalysis
500mb.gif


It's that 2nd feature to the west of the main trough that will influence if it gets pulled inland where, unless something else happens and it just says nah.
 
I'm holding out hope these "outliers" are onto something sending this thing up the coast towards NC (no offense NC friends). Hopefully this storm continues it's speed just long enough to get more influence from the North... so far so good I would say.
 
thunderwolf said:
I think its been hit on pretty well here, but the faster the system moves over the next 12-24 hours increases its chances of feeling the effects of the trough which would pull the system further northward over the Atlantic. But at this point, I really don't know which model will have it right going forward.
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I agree with you, I actually think, as others have said here, that Ian might hit the beach overnight. He is crossing halfway through the state already and looks to be moving fairly quickly.
radar 1.pngsat ian tonight.jpgcurrent steering.gif
 
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