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Tropical Hurricane Ian

SD said:
Yeah that's a very aggressive run and something I would expect from the 3k not the 12k. It really lagged the trough and allowed for more of a weakness and right track. It's probably not right but it's still barely within in the reasonable expectation envelope.
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I would not sleep on the NAM run, that is very much what the Euro had early on with a faster system, and the storm is much closer to the NAM right now timing and track wise than most of the globals.....does not mean it is right but it certainly should not be discounted, most of the west tracks after Florida have Ian taking several days to cross Florida, at the pace he is on now he will do it in a day or less. IF he is coming off the coast this time tomorrow then I think Charleston to ILM is the spot.
 
KyloG said:
HWRF doesn't even get it out on the atlantic...so still big spread among models. I hug the EPS mean at this range, hard to beat.

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That high in the NE is ridiculously strong!! No wonder models are showing it getting pushed West after Florida and or the Atlantic
 


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Thor said:
Considering this was just yesterday that was a pretty extreme right turn and a headache for forecasters. Not making excuses for those that didn't evacuate but those in that Southern area really didn't have a ton of time to make plans.
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Yep, reminds me of Charley’s late last minute east shift. Tampa was fortunate both times.
 
So, my area is under a TS watch. Idk when the last time that was.
 
Thor said:
Considering this was just yesterday that was a pretty extreme right turn and a headache for forecasters. Not making excuses for those that didn't evacuate but those in that Southern area really didn't have a ton of time to make plans.
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If this thing comes in just south of Charleston as a cat 2, it’s really bad news. For their sakes, I hope it goes either north or south but it could be real bad
 
Where do we find the verification scores? I bet the nam is outperformed the globals since Sunday.

The globals have stunk it up in regards to Ian and while we can not discount them by any means it doesn't make sense to put all your eggs in that basket either. The Ukie and the nam have been consistently showing a more east solution and Ian has done exactly that.
 
Avalanche said:
Can't wait to see if that impacts destination on proposed EC landfall.
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Take the TVCN/X (gray lines) and move ahead of it by a click.
That's where it's been ending up consistently.
On this one would be just south of Charleston, which would not be good.
But we have about 48 hours of more clicks to get through.

And to further test the theory, this is the model from Sept 26.
Compare it to where we ended up.
A click ahead of the gray lines.

Not very scientific, but it keeps happening over and over.

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09L_tracks_latest (12).png
 
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