Tropical Hurricane Ian

[KyloG]

6z EPS with mean centered on Tallahassee

 

[Metwannabe]

6z EPS with mean centered on Tallahassee

View attachment 122125

Well dang lol. Seems models are struggling as steering currents are collapsing upon approach, could be crawling or just drifting idk. Seems we're getting a spread in tracks once again around D3-5

 

[Henry2326]

Well dang lol. Seems models are struggling as steering currents are collapsing upon approach, could be crawling or just drifting idk. Seems we're getting a spread in tracks once again around D3-5

That aligns with NHC's comment of uncertainty in dy 3 to 5.

 

[smast16]

Yep.....there is some indication in the spaghetti models of some movement toward the east coast of FL.

This 00z ICON model is devastating for Tampa Bay. Front and East quadrant into the bay...... geez
2nd LF in SC.

View attachment 122121

That's Fort Myers to Port Charlotte. Tampa Bay is the northern bay and would be on the N and W side with winds emptying the bay.

 

[$alt]

genuinely baffled on how the 12z models will run. shift east? shift west? i don't know. i have absolutely no read. i spent 20 minutes trying to find the synoptic difference on why the icon is doing what it's doing and didn't see it. steering based on vibes. good luck.

Maybe someone knows more about the intricates of the tech in the Icon. Would they have any reason to even want to spend the time/money/resources on programming a good tropical idea into it since it's Germany?

But, with that said, the UKMET and even NAM go across FL.. lol

 

[DadOfJax]

Keep in mind it only runs out to 72 hrs, while it is west of it's previous track, it is heading N/NNE and would probably still end up in the big bend area of Fl. Just didn't want anyone to read that west shift as it heading towards Destin or something that far west.

Wont be surprised at all if it ends up in the panhandle....trends today should be telling....and so far, its west.

 

[HugeSnowStick]

Wont be surprised at all if it ends up in the panhandle....trends today should be telling....and so far, its west.

And it very well might end up in Destin...

 

[DadOfJax]

6z EPS with mean centered on Tallahassee

View attachment 122125

WOW.....exactly what I have been saying for days. This thing is going to miss every possible feature to get it to move east......it may sit in the gulf for days just meandering around.

 

[BHS1975]

I just remember when the ukie powned all the other models with Florence which was very weak steering.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[accu35]

What system was that last year (Or two ago) that models kept inching west and west, and was progged to be a direct hit on NO. And It did, but it was just a naked swirl of low pressure and nothing more than a breezy day.

Wondering.

It was little more than breezy, it destroyed my neighborhood

 

[Chazwin]

I just remember when the ukie powned all the other models with Florence which was very weak steering.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Honestly the UK has probably been the most consistent model the last couple days.

 

[Stormsfury]

genuinely baffled on how the 12z models will run. shift east? shift west? i don't know. i have absolutely no read. i spent 20 minutes trying to find the synoptic difference on why the icon is doing what it's doing and didn't see it. steering based on vibes. good luck.

Icon seems to be a tick quicker with Ian and a touch slower with the longwave..or maybe putting too much stock in steering from the large ridge out west. It's wonky, not impossible, but wonky

 

[Downeastnc]

I would not discount the models crossing Florida just yet....the system seems on the eastern side of track and.is moving north at a good clip...

 

[Henry2326]

I just remember when the ukie powned all the other models with Florence which was very weak steering.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I remember.....Euro had it going against the gulf stream to Charleston. City shut down....not even a breeze or drop of water.

 

[stboo6]

That's Fort Myers to Port Charlotte. Tampa Bay is the northern bay and would be on the N and W side with winds emptying the bay.

View attachment 122126

If this verified! Any guess on the implications for Ft Myers? I have a YOUNG daughter working/living in the historic district / riverwalk area. Sorry if this is banter! Worried mom!

 

[Stormsfury]

I remember.....Euro had it going against the gulf stream to Charleston. City shut down....not even a breeze or drop of water.

Have to correct you on that. We got winds and a light drizzle. A very cool 3 days with breezy, almost wedge like conditions lol

 

[Tornadocane]

To my eyes, it appears that some Upper to Mid-Level Sheer is inserting dry air into the system, because Ian is sitting on the N and NW side of the Upper Level Anticyclone. Thus, dry air is circling into the system. I Imagine this is the reason Ian isn't deepening.

 

[Henry2326]

Have to correct you on that. We got winds and a light drizzle. A very cool 3 days with breezy, almost wedge like conditions lol

I was in Goose Creek too. Thanks for the correction.
It wasn't a major much less a minor....lol

 

[Arcc]

It should be noted that the more this gets shredded, it would make sense for the to drift westward across the northern gulf. It would be a naked swirl, but it’s possible.

 

[ILMRoss]

Icon seems to be a tick quicker with Ian and a touch slower with the longwave..or maybe putting too much stock in steering from the large ridge out west. It's wonky, not impossible, but wonky

my guess is front orientation- the northeasterlies from the front are going to influence track. icon is faster (so less time expose to northeasterlies) and nam has the front orientation a little more n-s (so the surface winds have less of an easterly component)