Tropical Hurricane Ian

[brendan123]

Can’t remember if the HRRR is even close to reliable with tropical systems at this range, but it looked to be taking Ian inland between Ft. Myers and Venice.

 

[ILMRoss]

967 with some wind, we are at 985ish when i woke up this morning, i would call this RI

 

[weather bubba]

I know I am one of the old dogs but damn, I miss John Hope this time of year.

That brings me back to yesteryear when the Weather Channel actually broadcasted the weather 24/7 at times other than special situations. John Hope was the best the Weather Channel ever had although Steve Lyons and Richard Knabb knew what they were doing too. It seemed like John Hope would insert the phrase "As time goes by" into every sentence.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Totals keep going up here along the escarpment

 

[Tornadocane]

The 200-700Mb Level of the atmosphere is trying to steer the system to the NNE as the 700-850Mb steering slows or completely collapses after Cuba. I can't imagine Ian just heading north without wobbling to the East with a strong storm. I suspect horizontal sheer will also blow convection towards the NE side of the storm, and it already looks like it's having an impact on the NW side.

Also, This system is Definitely Rapidly Intensifying at the moment. I'd say the strength is accelerating ahead of model outputs.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Tornadocane]

View attachment 122184
967 with some wind, we are at 985ish when i woke up this morning, i would call this RI

I think it's about 10Mbs lower than the pressure from just a few hours ago.

 

[jeremyt]

Totals keep going up here along the escarpment

View attachment 122187

Impressive either way but is this over a 3 day period or a 1 day?

 

[deltadog03]

Here is current steering.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[deltadog03]

The 200-700Mb Level of the atmosphere is trying to steer the system to the NNE as the 700-850Mb steering slows or completely collapses after Cuba. I can't imagine Ian just heading north without wobbling to the East with a strong storm. I suspect horizontal sheer will also blow convection towards the NE side of the storm, and it already looks like it's having an impact on the NW side.

Also, This system is Definitely Rapidly Intensifying at the moment. I'd say the strength is accelerating ahead of model outputs.

I agree

 

[MichaelAndrews]

I don't know if I can watch 2 majors in one week.....we are a long way from that but now ICON is pushing for a Charleston LF which was also in the 18z spaghetti model.

View attachment 122174

Somebody sneezes the wrong way and Charleston floods, that would be disaster and luckily not many here have faith in that model lol

 

[Thor]

Hurricane models jumping east

 

[Arcc]

Hurricane models jumping east

View attachment 122189

I noticed while still headed for the big bend, the WRF is a whole degree east of 12z at 42hrs.

 

[deltadog03]

Recon punching center now.

 

[Shaggy]

Recon punching center now.

Will be interesting for real time motion becuase it sure looks almost due north

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Recon found a 967mb pressure so far…

 

[Snowfan]

965.2 mb with 27 kts per the NOAA.
232230 2040N 08319W 7511 02222 9652 +195 +163 249021 027 038 000 00

 

[Henry2326]

18z HMON crosses FL and enters Atlantic (continues its trend)

 

[BHS1975]

Oddly enough the Euro actually had this exact track early on, I don't see it happening either but the fact it won't go completely away is interesting

The ukie agrees with the ICON.


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