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Tropical Hurricane Ian

jeremyt said:
How about the south side of the storm being basically eroded by dry air? Wouldn’t that effect track as well. I know the stronger the more poleward but with the trough pulling out and the dry air intrusion I’m not sure it will be enough to gain as much latitude as being shown. Although I’m not as well versed as some, I’m just giving my best educated guess based off of what I see.
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We are in the same boat in regards to the dry and how it may effect track.
 
Shaggy said:
We are in the same boat in regards to the dry and how it may effect track.
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Okay so your thoughts is that the south side being dry and eroded helps it gain a more northern track? I would have thought that would keep it weaker this not as much as a northern track. I can admit I have no clue what it going et would do as I have never read up on those effects. School me up as I love learning about weather.
 
This is what's going on under the hood in the transition

trop1_orig.jpg
 
jeremyt said:
Okay so your thoughts is that the south side being dry and eroded helps it gain a more northern track? I would have thought that would keep it weaker this not as much as a northern track. I can admit I have no clue what it going et would do as I have never read up on those effects. School me up as I love learning about weather.
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At this point I have no.idea how the dry would change his track. I saying north because he has ways been on the right side of forecast and that trend has held true for 3 days. Gefs, eps are shifting north.
 
Shaggy said:
I think deepening is real risk due to interaction with the jet and beginning the extratropical transition so some of those stronger members could certainly be correct. Storms firing north of the center now. Still looks NNE or NE to me for the LLC
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Another thing to keep in mind… that’s a legitimate high pressure moving into the Northeast. That should block things up from coming too far north. For just once this winter can we move a strong high into that location with this plenty of moisture moving in… lol
 
Downeastnc said:
We are already gusting to the mid to upper 20's here just on gradient packing alone...will be interesting to see how things shake out tomorrow wind wise as Ian moves in....
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I know it’s not worth much, but Accuweather has me with max wind gust of 79mph. I know that’s highly unlikely, but it makes you wonder
 
Chazwin said:
I know it’s not worth much, but Accuweather has me with max wind gust of 79mph. I know that’s highly unlikely, but it makes you wonder
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With how the wind is today, that wouldn’t surprise me…


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jeremyt said:
If verified that would put some trees down in our area. My biggest question is wind or rain first or is a simultaneous deal.
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That’s a great point… back in 2018, we had similar peak wind gusts with both Florence and Michael in the 60-65mph range, however the winds from Florence came before the heavy rains while Michael it came after… there was a lot more tree damage and power outages in the area with Michael
 
Chazwin said:
That’s a great point… back in 2018, we had similar peak wind gusts with both Florence and Michael in the 60-65mph range, however the winds from Florence came before the heavy rains while Michael it came after… there was a lot more tree damage and power outages in the area with Michael
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I guess power outage is my biggest concern after trees on my house. Power goes out here during a moderate thunderstorm. Got to work Friday evening and worried for the wife and kids.
 
5 pm
80 mph into Charleston harbor....oh boy


AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind (9).png


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 29.3N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 30.5N 79.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 32.8N 79.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 35.0N 80.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 01/1800Z 36.5N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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