severestorm
Member
10mb stronger
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
EMTime
Member
Biden said "substantial loss of life".
Geez the wind field is huge
Henry2326
Member
For those interested in the question " just how bad could the surge be into Charleston harbor"......they call it the low country for a reason.....and the high tide adds substantial risk to the situation.
iGRXY
Member
That’s some serious winds not far above our heads that could easily get mixed down in those heavy downpours10mb stronger
Downeastnc
Member
Ian's "center" is already pretty much on 79.4 W which is as far east as the 5pm NHC update took him....his east of track bias looks to be intact still....finally a plane is in route so maybe we will get a idea of what is left of his center....
Looks like Ian is just now starting to make the West movement within the last 45 min:
Code:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2022 Time : 222020 UTC
Lat : 29:28:05 N Lon : 79:48:28 WDowneastnc
Member
Hard to tell where the actual center is, recon should help sort it out....parts of the "center" on vis look to be all the way to 78.5W, there are a lot of little vorts in there though so
Hard to tell where the actual center is, recon should help sort it out....
Agree. I've just been going by this: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html
Happy to get a recon fix soon
NCSNOW
Member
Cold sustained wind out here getting this HS game in tonight.
The rain is really struggling to make it to the coast this evening. I figured we would have seen more than a few sprinkles by now
severestorm
Member
Looks like convection is again trying to consolidate to the middle again too.
Sorry I should have said and I meant here in Charleston.
Just getting our first drops of rain here on James Island
severestorm
Member
Stormsfury
Member
Close to 29.7°N, 79.5°W 986mb pressure. SMFR 75KTS unflagged...
Looks like the satellite/info has done a great job finding the core area of circulation since the "Eye" dropsonde location matches up. It's still starting to tick it back West very slowly. I need to reiterate. VERY slowly
That's a pretty far north landfall. I know you like the RGEM. It doesn't do all that bad.
Yeah, it was north. Charleston looks like a good bet.
Shaggy
Member
Time sensitive but could these be gravity waves on water vapor ejecting south out of the center?
SWVAwxfan
Member
Looking more ominous for the NRV. Meanwhile, that model only show 0.35 in of rain for KCAE.
smast16
Member
I dont really believe Ian is tropical anymore, and has undergone ET. The only reason why NHC is still keeping it alive is because this will still be a bad storm coming ashore tomorrow.
85mph now?
Well now...
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That UKMET run to Shallotte wasn’t that bad of a call
Henry2326
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
One thing I notice, is that on the new run the bend back west doesn’t begin until it’s around 32 degrees North. Whereas 18z has that turn around 30.7 N. Makes a huge difference
Just got back from a brush fire. Looks like NHC forecast shifted a little north. Next 12-14 hours will be interesting
Thor
Member
Going further north? Shocking.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Last 4 runs of the NAM
There’s definitely still enough tropical characteristics to still call it a hurricane, but I do think it is taking on some extra-tropical characteristics as well. You are right that even if it were ET, the NHC is going to continue treating it as a hurricane… they got too much grief back in 2012 for not issuing hurricane warnings for the Maryland and NJ coasts with Sandy
Avalanche
Member
The rain field is looking pretty anemic to me.
It's going to become more expansive by morning.
lizajane
Member
It's raining steadily here. Started about 4pm.
Cary_Snow95
Member
JHS
Member
0z NAM has landfall about 25 miles SW of Myrtle Beach.