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Tropical Hurricane Ian

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metwannabe said:
No surprise at all, it would have to hook hard left right now for that not too happen and I'll not be shocked to see it a little NE of that
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It’s a nor’easter now though. Not sure what benefit we are even getting with being further east at this point other than it being even more drizzly and miserable .
 
Lickwx said:
It’s a nor’easter now though. Not sure what benefit we are even getting with being further east at this point other than it being even more drizzly and miserable .
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I think the core still has some tropical characteristics, so that could still be a little more impactful along the coast with exact landfall. It will also still have a core of stronger winds that exact landfall will determine where a few of the strongest gust are, overall it means nothing for you and I as far as our backyards go but I like tracking regardless of that
 
I do recall in Charley that the S side had some pretty violent downburst like wind gust as the dry air wrapped around the south side...nothing crazy but something to watch for...
 
metwannabe said:
I think the core still has some tropical characteristics, so that could still be a little more impactful along the coast with exact landfall. It will also still have a core of stronger winds that exact landfall will determine where a few of the strongest gust are, overall it means nothing for you and I as far as our backyards go but I like tracking regardless of that
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Also helps enhance the rain numbers for us Central nc peeps
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Also helps enhance the rain numbers for us Central nc peeps
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Yep, plus with that thunderstorm activity in the center I bet it's still tropical at this point, hybrid sure but still tropical system. Idk if nor'easters have that much lightning in the center. Recon should give some good info
 
metwannabe said:
I hate that my best location for my tempest is still somewhat blocked from N and NE winds. I'm tempted to relocate today temporarily so I can get a better reading ?
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Do you find precip accuracy issues with your tempest? I find they do well with lighter/moderate rain, but heavy rain the totals are soooo bad.
 
BackThePack said:
Do you find precip accuracy issues with your tempest? I find they do well with lighter/moderate rain, but heavy rain the totals are soooo bad.
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Actually best I can tell precip has been fairly accurate, nothing glaring to me there that stands out.... I will say it got better once I turned the Rain Check feature off (I'm in rural area that seems less accurate when there aren't other stations close by)
 
I feel like so far the winds have been fairly calm here in apex .. not noticeable at all as of right now and barely seeing the trees sway.. assuming we have to wait to get into some heavier bands but we’ve had .5 so far here so that’s nice
 
SPC keeps us in a slight risk today. It will be interesting to see how much of the warmer unstable air can be pushed inland. I kind of have my doubts that we will see anything but a brief waterspout or two, but we will see if anything can get spun up along the boundary.

Hurricane Ian is currently off the SC coast, tracking northward.
Surface winds remain northeasterly over land areas, with dewpoints
generally in the 50s and low/mid 60s. Offshore, buoy data suggests
a more moist/unstable air mass is present with dewpoints in the mid
70s. Scattered semi-discrete convection has been occurring in this
offshore regime, along with a few transient supercell structures.
Present indications are that the more moist/favorable air will be
transported inland by early afternoon, with sufficient CAPE to pose
a risk of surface-based storms across much of eastern NC. Satellite
imagery suggests dry air has been entrained into the circulation,
which might lead to pockets of stronger heating/destabilization.
However, the tornado threat should be restricted to areas where the
richest low-level moisture is present (at least low 70s dewpoints).
The area of concern for a few tornadoes will spread northward into
southeast VA tonight as Ian moves inland.
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So what exactly were most of the models missing that was making Ian go east of the track majority of the time? I’m curious and don’t know much about this stuff.
 
metwannabe said:
Overdone right?

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Sure it's overdone a bit but even 75% of that I probably lose power. The trends got us here, and you have certainly been on them the whole time and I commend you for that.

I mean either way I have everything charging and ready to go. I've had some flickers this morning. 1.22" on the tempest. Going to throw a steak on the griddle and enjoy whatever blows through.
 
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