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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Shawn said:
We can't be sure, because if we can get into later Feb-Early March, we can still get an enough cold air of sorts that can work in our favor. While historically Mid Feb is best, we have had many events in early March also.

Things are wonky with modeling, and lets be honest here. CAE usually gets nailed with temperatures in the 60's and 70's leading up to and after the event. Rarely, do we get nailed in a true arctic outbreak. MJO is throwing a big wrench into the forecasts, but I do think we are not going to see some crazy Arctic outbreak before late Feb, it at all in our neck of the woods, which is not exactly a bad thing.
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I like your positive thinking!
 
Shawn said:
I mean, what can go wrong? If someone calls it off (like many have done outside this forum with more viewership on Twitter etc), the only thing that can happen is it works out better for cold or snow fans.

I think there may be a disconnection between no more snow and a torch/heat. We can all certainly score with the right storm in a overall warmer scenario. Historically, I am sure Macon has done well when it was just 74F two days before and I bet 74F or warmer after it was over. I wish I could pull data like Larry can for areas like Macon, Augusta, Orangeburg to see just how many snow events have happened in March, even, with upper 70's around before and after.

I still do not like the storm tracks for our back yards though. I have just been using the GFS based on that, and not paying much attention to the Euro in this situation. I would assume the GFS still handles the Northern Stream better. I am not sure which model is best with the Southern stream when all is said and done, though.
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Yeah I remember in mid Feb. '79. Was working at my dads gas station that Friday afternoon and the new forecast came out at 4:30 that afternoon. We were in short sleeve shirts and they said WSW for Sat. and Sun. for heavy snow. It began falling just before dark on Sat. and it was 15 degrees all day long on Sun. with heavy snow eventually to heavy snow/sleet. On Mon. it was in the 60s again and was melting like crazy.
 
GEFS still in phase 7 by the 18th and EPS almost in phase 1. Will be interesting to see who wins, or if it’s a blend.

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Gfs has a system rolling through here about every three days. Don't need it , don't want it. Its wet enough. It needs to dry out some
 
Kylo said:
GEFS still in phase 7 by the 18th and EPS almost in phase 1. Will be interesting to see who wins, or if it’s a blend.

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It's funny seeing the eps carry it through phase 8 into phase 1 even at a low amplitude and seeing the gefs kill it in phase 7. It's like they flipped.

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GeorgiaGirl said:
Yeah it's the GFS but it doesn't look like it responded to phase 8 at all or the idea that after the MJO passes through 4-5-6 there's a trough two weeks later in the east. I'll give it some more time though.
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We’re not going to see a response to a forecasted phase 8 in the modeling yet. We’ll need the pulse to move closer to phase 8 for that to happen, it’s spending a long time (11+ days) in 7, after all.


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Storm5 said:
It's funny seeing the eps carry it through phase 8 into phase 1 even at a low amplitude and seeing the gefs kill it in phase 7. It's like they flipped.

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I'll admit not been best looks but I not throwing in the towel. Want to try and make 5 day forecast? Models are really struggling...
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.... Carry on
 
Jon said:
We’re not going to see a response to a forecasted phase 8 in the modeling yet. We’ll need the pulse to move closer to phase 8 for that to happen, it’s spending a long time (11+ days) in 7, after all.


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Well it should be getting close to 8 at this point. At some point soon we need to get into phase 8. Almost all signs point to it getting there, isn't it getting pretty close to it at this point?
 
snowvol said:
Well it should be getting close to 8 at this point. At some point soon we need to get into phase 8. Almost all signs point to it getting there, isn't it getting pretty close to it at this point?
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Like I said in my post, best case is it’s 11 days away, of course that can change but my answer is no, it’s isn’t close.
 
Jon said:
Like I said in my post, best case is it’s 11 days away, of course that can change but my answer is no, it’s isn’t close.
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But you would think the models will pick up on it before we actually get into 8. I don't know all about the MJO, I know it isn't the only factor in our weather here in the mid south. Just going by what I pick up on here it seems like the MJO is so hard to forecast or keep up with. No matter what the models are truly inconsistent these days, so what it is showing 10 days down the road bank on the opposite.
 
The MJO ended up having a whopping 3.83 peak in phase 7, which was on 2/1. (It actually peaked at 3.90 in phase 6.) When I was first following this closely, the EPS had a phase 7 peak prediction of 2.5 vs the GEFS' 4.2. MDA mets and I predicted EPS would verify more closely on the idea that it usually does better than GEFS and that GEFS so often overamps. Webber, however, predicted GEFS would do better based on initializations in Maritime Continent actually favoring GEFS, which I hadn't at the time realized. Webber and GEFS clearly killed it. Congrats! This was a learning process for myself and hopefully also MDA. Consider the current MJO phase before predicting which of EPS and GEFS will do better. Don't just automatically go with EPS just based on the idea that it generally has done better than GEFS.
 
Honestly, im ready for spring/summer. If we do get another winterstorm then thats great, but for MBY im very satisfied that i had my 2 snows. Ready for hurricane season and severe weather to track.
 
tennessee storm said:
be glad help anyway i can
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accu35 said:
Honestly, im ready for spring/summer. If we do get another winterstorm then thats great, but for MBY im very satisfied that i had my 2 snows. Ready for hurricane season and severe weather to track.
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I'm not. I hope we have a non-existent severe season. Haven't had major lines that do major damage in a long time and I'd like to keep it that way for some time. As far as hurricane season, how about you help write the wiki articles and keep them up to date, especially when we have multiple storms at once. Trying to track all of them and update them last year was a pain and still isn't complete. :confused:
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm not. I hope we have a non-existent severe season. Haven't had major lines that do major damage in a long time and I'd like to keep it that way for some time. As far as hurricane season, how about you help write the wiki articles and keep them up to date, especially when we have multiple storms at once. Trying to track all of them and update them last year was a pain and still isn't complete. :confused:
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1000 Likes, FS!
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm not. I hope we have a non-existent severe season. Haven't had major lines that do major damage in a long time and I'd like to keep it that way for some time. As far as hurricane season, how about you help write the wiki articles and keep them up to date, especially when we have multiple storms at once. Trying to track all of them and update them last year was a pain and still isn't complete. :confused:
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Having lived in Dahlonega for a year I have to say your area is in a good area if you dont like severe weather. The wedge often protects areas north and northeast of Atl.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Having lived in Dahlonega for a year I have to say your area is in a good area if you dont like severe weather. The wedge often protects areas north and northeast of Atl.
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That's been the case for years here, but it's repeats of 2011 and and 2008 that I don't want to see again. Too many close calls with tornadoes.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That's been the case for years here, but it's repeats of 2011 and and 2008 that I don't want to see again. Too many close calls with tornadoes.
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i been a huge severe weather fan since 11 years old...intrigued by the super 74 outbreak april...been amateur chasing since early 80s ... were surely over due for active season... hoping no one gets hit... but midsouth way over due for large scale event... i be posting more as spring draws closer....
 
GaWx said:
The MJO ended up having a whopping 3.83 peak in phase 7, which was on 2/1. (It actually peaked at 3.90 in phase 6.) When I was first following this closely, the EPS had a phase 7 peak prediction of 2.5 vs the GEFS' 4.2. MDA mets and I predicted EPS would verify more closely on the idea that it usually does better than GEFS and that GEFS so often overamps. Webber, however, predicted GEFS would do better based on initializations in Maritime Continent actually favoring GEFS, which I hadn't at the time realized. Webber and GEFS clearly killed it. Congrats! This was a learning process for myself and hopefully also MDA. Consider the current MJO phase before predicting which of EPS and GEFS will do better. Don't just automatically go with EPS just based on the idea that it generally has done better than GEFS.
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Pretty good prediction considering the GEFS has stunk it up bigly as a whole for Jan MJO forecasts.
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1300m said:
It's unanimous that through 2/15 the pattern will remain unfavorable for any significant bouts of cold or wintry weather. Even if the MJO does move through Phase 8 around that time, it'll take another 5 to 7 days for the pattern to evolve. The window is closing. There could still be a small window of time for a good pattern to emerge beyond 2/20 into early March, and we could still pull something out even without a perfect pattern, but slowly but surely time is becoming our enemy.

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I agree . We clearly are not gonna see the Fab Feb that we thought we were going to see. Either way there should be one more chance for the upper south with proper timing.

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The end of winter is shaping up to be a disaster if you want cold and snow. I was hopeful last week that we’d see the modeling correct colder in the lr, but the progs keep looking worse and worse. MJO Phase 8 is for the birds. We’ve been had!
 
Rain Cold said:
The end of winter is shaping up to be a disaster if you want cold and snow. I was hopeful last week that we’d see the modeling correct colder in the lr, but the progs keep looking worse and worse. MJO Phase 8 is for the birds. We’ve been had!
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I will gladly trade locations with you. Nothing but cold and snow here the next week. I'm ready for spring.
 
Storm5 said:
I agree . We clearly are not gonna see the Fab Feb that we thought we were going to see. Either way there should be one more chance for the upper south with proper timing.

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I said it. Feburnuary has arrived. Maybe there is another chance for us in the upper south, as it has been a bit since there has been a late February to early March snow.
 
Models are trending colder, the deep south winter may be over. But parts of the mid and upper south still have plenty of time. I think some are lumping the entire south with winter cancel and it's silly. Arkansas,north miss,ala and georgia up into Tn, Ky and even parts of North Carolina still have shots of winter weather. Winter is far from over with certainty for those areas.
 
One thing is certain: we will never get these kinds of precipitation events when it is actually cold enough to snow. We’ll have to scratch and claw our way to a couple of mercy inches. SMH
 
Rain Cold said:
The end of winter is shaping up to be a disaster if you want cold and snow. I was hopeful last week that we’d see the modeling correct colder in the lr, but the progs keep looking worse and worse. MJO Phase 8 is for the birds. We’ve been had!
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RC,
Not disagreeing in the least; been looking for any model, no matter how bogus, to suggest otherwise, and no needle found in the haystack.
However, like you say, last week was hopeful. Whose to say that in 3 or 4 or 5 days it's not all lit up light a Christmas tree (and not the 4th of July)? Wishful thinking? Perhaps. Yet, it is only February 4th, and y'all have a shot at least for another good 5 weeks give or take.
Do not despair ... at least not for 10 days or so ... ;)
Off the soap box ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
RC,
Not disagreeing in the least; been looking for any model, no matter how bogus, to suggest otherwise, and no needle found in the haystack.
However, like you say, last week was hopeful. Whose to say that in 3 or 4 or 5 days it's not all lit up light a Christmas tree (and not the 4th of July)? Wishful thinking? Perhaps. Yet, it is only February 4th, and y'all have a shot at least for another good 5 weeks give or take.
Do not despair ... at least not for 10 days or so ... ;)
Off the soap box ... :cool:
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Good post. I agree, but if I don’t start seeing something within the next 10-15 days, I’m punting!
 
Ive always had the mindset that Feb 15 is the end of winter in the deep south. 9 years out of 10 that is true. Doesnt mean it cant snow deep into March though. I think Atlantas biggest snowfall was in late March
 
Not sure whether winter is over as my crystal ball is a little murky, but I NEVER want to go into severe season nor the 5-6 months of heat which follows it. Also Hurricanes are fun to track, as long as they don't hit anything
 
MichaelJ said:
Not sure whether winter is over as my crystal ball is a little murky, but I NEVER want to go into severe season nor the 5-6 months of heat which follows it. Also Hurricanes are fun to track, as long as they don't hit anything
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the months of June, July, August, and sometimes September are just miserable in North GA. Heat combined with humidity combined with mosquitoes is a recipe for misery.
 
Rain Cold said:
Good post. I agree, but if I don’t start seeing something within the next 10-15 days, I’m punting!
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Could this be the third February in a row without any accumulating snow for Raleigh. We might have had a trace in 2016 and 2017 but nothing accumulating that I recall. February is our peak snow month and to potentially go three February’s in a row would be disappointing. Still holding out hope for last week of February but it’s getting tough to hope when the global ensembles look this rough.
 
Storm5 said:
Didn't you say wi ter was over?

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Yes and no. Yes, I said it's over for big storms, and I punted February for any snow already and it seems to be shaping up to not snow this month. However, I think there may be a little chance of snow if we can get the patterns right and get lucky with a late winter storm.
 
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